宏观周报：国内7月物价环比企稳出口增长超预期-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, China's domestic price level stabilized month - on - month, and export growth exceeded expectations. The "anti - involution" policy contributed to price stability, and external demand remained resilient. In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was close to the recession threshold, increasing the uncertainty of economic soft - landing [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - GDP and Consumption: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. Consumption supported economic growth [15] - Industrial Added Value: In June 2025, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year. The mining industry increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 1.8% [16] - Fixed - Asset Investment: In the first half of 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% [16] - Export and Import: In July 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports increased by 8% and imports by 4.8%. In the first seven months, exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, and imports were 10.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.6% [4] - PMI: In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points [5] 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - Social Financing: In June 2025, the new social financing in a single month was 4.20 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [34] - Credit: In June 2025, financial institutions' new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11 billion yuan. The balance of credit increased by 7.1% year - on - year [34] - Money Supply: In June 2025, the M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 scissors gap narrowed to 3.7% [34] 3.3 Inflation Indicators - CPI: In July 2025, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024 [43] - PPI: In July 2025, the ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and 4.5% year - on - year [43] 3.4 Overseas Macroeconomy - US Economy: In July 2025, the new non - farm payroll employment in the US was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation. The market's pricing of the probability of a September interest rate cut rose to 81%. On July 30, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged [54][55] - Eurozone Economy: In August 2025, the Eurozone HICP was 2.0%, and the core HICP was 2.3% [13] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Exchange Rate: In August 2025, the RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar. The on - shore and off - shore RMB both stood firm at the 7.18 mark. The exchange rate was driven by factors such as the expected Fed interest rate cut, the improvement of domestic economic data, and the release of dollar settlement demand [66]