甲醇日评20250811:内地煤制甲醇供应逐步增加-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. From a driving force perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited actual impact on methanol production, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, suppressing the spot price in East China. The recent coking coal sentiment will still affect methanol, but the rebound space of methanol is expected to be limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 decreased from 2497.00 yuan/ton to 2475.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00 yuan/ton (-0.88%); MA05 decreased from 2454.00 yuan/ton to 2439.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA09 decreased from 2388.00 yuan/ton to 2383.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.21%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: In regions like Taicang, the price decreased from 2382.50 yuan/ton to 2380.00 yuan/ton (-0.10%); in Shandong, it decreased from 2342.50 yuan/ton to 2335.00 yuan/ton (-0.32%); in Guangdong, it decreased from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2372.50 yuan/ton (-0.32%); in Shaanxi, it increased from 2127.50 yuan/ton to 2135.00 yuan/ton (0.35%); in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2105.00 yuan/ton to 2090.00 yuan/ton (-0.71%) [1]. - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased from 492.50 yuan/ton to 495.00 yuan/ton (0.51%), while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Profit Changes - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 451.50 yuan/ton to 445.20 yuan/ton (-1.40%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 500.00 yuan/ton [1]. - MTO Profits: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 63.00 yuan/ton to 34.20 yuan/ton (-45.71%); East China MTO profit decreased from - 641.57 yuan/ton to - 654.57 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [1]. - Methanol Downstream Profits: Acetic acid profit decreased from 215.84 yuan/ton to 204.76 yuan/ton (-5.13%); MTBE profit increased from 207.68 yuan/ton to 217.68 yuan/ton (4.82%); formaldehyde profit remained at - 301.60 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 decreased slightly, opening at 2391 yuan/ton, closing at 2383 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 298,400 lots and an open interest of 406,384 lots. All contracts except the 2508 contract had trading volume [1]. - Foreign Information: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a certain Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1].