国泰海通资产配置月度方案（202508）：风险偏好改善支撑全球权益配置价值-20250811

• The report introduces the Macro Factor Risk Parity Model for Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), which aims to diversify macro risks and stabilize allocation positions. The model uses real macro indicators to construct original macro factors, such as growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity factors for domestic economy, and asset premium factors for overseas markets. These factors are standardized after processing real values and predictions through STL seasonal treatment. The model employs multi-linear regression with a rolling 5-year window and a 1-year half-life for regression weights to calculate factor exposures. The backtesting results show an annualized return of 9.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.57, indicating satisfactory performance in risk diversification[42][43][44] - The Black-Litterman (BL) Strategy is used for Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) to enhance returns. It combines macroeconomic factor scores with subjective views to form a viewpoint matrix. The process starts with converting macroeconomic consensus expectations into asset macro composite score indicators, then into expected returns, and finally integrating them into the BL viewpoint matrix. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 23.1% during the five-year backtesting period (2019/01/02-2024/02/29) and 55% in 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.65, demonstrating the effectiveness of combining subjective and quantitative research[50][51][54] - The Macro Factor Risk Parity Model backtesting results show stable allocation proportions: bonds at 40-50%, equities at approximately 50%, and commodities below 10%. This aligns with mainstream investment needs. The model's annualized return is 9.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.57, and it outperforms the traditional risk parity model in terms of returns while maintaining balanced asset allocation[45][46][48] - The BL Strategy backtesting results indicate an annualized return of 24%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.65. In 2025, the strategy achieved a remarkable annualized return of 55%, successfully capturing key market opportunities such as the Q1 gold bull market and Q2 A-share recovery. The strategy's concentrated holdings are mitigated by the SAA framework, which establishes baseline proportions for major asset classes[54][56][57]