国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS）：市场窄幅震荡，翘板效应弱化-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent decline in bond futures provides a good opportunity to enter the market. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: the central bank's determination to maintain stability through large - scale open - market operations and month - end bond purchases; the stabilization of the capital market and the weakening of the capital rotation effect between the stock and bond markets; and the attractiveness of bond yields for institutional funds after previous adjustments [8]. - In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the new normal of the declining marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth, and potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue under the support of a loose - money cycle [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views - Weekly Market Review: The market moved sideways this week. The bond market was less correlated with the stock and commodity markets. There were rumors of large banks buying 7 - and 10 - year bonds, and expectations of the central bank restarting bond purchases were strong. The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of 3 - month term repurchase operations on Thursday. The market expects another 6 - month term repurchase operation this month, and the total operation amount in August is likely to exceed the 900 billion yuan of maturing amounts. The 3M term repurchase rate was rumored to have been cut by 5bp. Liquidity was abundant, with overnight funding rates falling below 1.3%, and short - term bond varieties benefited more than long - term ones [4]. - Market Data: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509, TL2512, etc. For example, TL2509 closed at 119.320 with a weekly increase of 0.24%, and its trading volume was 48,964,100 with a decrease of 18,078,900 [5]. Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), various interest rates (such as reverse - repurchase rates, inter - bank lending rates, etc.), deposit reserve ratios, and bond yields (both domestic and US bonds). These charts show the historical trends of these indicators over different time periods [10][15][18]. Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - Basis: The report shows the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including the basis of the current quarter contracts [41][43]. - Net Basis: It presents the net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts [50][55]. - IRR: The internal rate of return (IRR) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts is provided [58][61]. - Implied Interest Rate: The implied interest rates of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts are shown [64][65].