原油溢价显著收窄叠加供应宽松，期价弱势延续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market shows characteristics of weak supply and demand, with more obvious supply pressure. In the medium - term, oil prices may remain in a low - level, volatile and weak pattern, and the SC - WTI spread has room to further narrow [5]. - Supply - side factors such as Iraq's price war, increased production in the Middle East and Canada, and India's substitution of Russian oil purchases form triple negative impacts. Demand is only supported by policies in some local markets, and global industrial demand is still constrained by China's economic weakness and the tightening policies of Europe and the United States [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On August 8, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped to 489.8 yuan/barrel, a 2.24% decline from the previous day, showing a continuous five - day downward trend. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 63.82 and 66.41 US dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI weakened by 47.49% and 26.92% respectively, indicating a significant narrowing of the premium of Chinese crude oil futures relative to international oil prices. The spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive - three narrowed to 8.6 yuan/barrel, weakening the near - weak and far - strong structure [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may disrupt Russia's refined oil exports, but Russia has stated that it will increase processing volume to ensure fuel supply. Iraq lowered its official crude oil selling prices to North America and Europe in September, indicating its intention to seize market share. Coupled with the recovery of heavy crude oil production in Canada and the Middle East, the global crude oil supply is relatively loose [2]. - Demand Side: India approved a 300 - billion - rupee LPG subsidy, which may boost household fuel consumption. However, the demand side of refineries is differentiated. US refiners benefit from the increased supply of heavy crude oil, and their profit expectations are improved. In China, the prices of refined products such as asphalt and fuel oil have fallen, and the PPI in July continued to decline negatively, suggesting that the demand for infrastructure and industrial oil has not substantially recovered [3]. - Inventory Side: The inventory data of Cushing and commercial crude oil in the United States have not been updated. The decrease in the procurement cost of heavy crude oil by refineries may drive refineries to increase their utilization rates, thereby accelerating inventory depletion. Russia's increase in crude oil processing volume to meet domestic demand may suppress its crude oil export volume. However, India's possible reduction of Russian oil imports may lead to competitive selling of Russian oil flowing to Europe, indirectly increasing the implicit inventory pressure on OECD countries [4]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market has the characteristics of weak supply and demand, with more obvious supply pressure. In the medium - term, OPEC+ has not yet signaled further production cuts, and the improvement of US refinery profits has limited impact on demand. Oil prices may maintain a low - level, volatile and weak pattern, and the SC - WTI spread has room to further narrow [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures Prices: On August 8, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price was 489.80 yuan/barrel, a 2.24% decline from the previous day; the WTI price was 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a 0.74% decline; the Brent price was 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a 0.14% decline [7]. - Spot Prices: The prices of various types of crude oil spot showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [7]. - Spreads: The spreads between SC and Brent, SC and WTI narrowed, while the spread between Brent and WTI widened. The spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive - three also narrowed [7]. - Other Assets: The US dollar index rose by 0.19%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.78%, the DAX index fell by 0.12%, and the RMB exchange rate remained basically unchanged [7]. - Inventory and开工率: The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.71%, the Cushing inventory increased by 2.01%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.06%. The API inventory decreased by 0.93%. The US refinery weekly开工率 increased by 1.57%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 1.26% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: The prices of various fuel oil futures showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [8]. - Spot Prices: The prices of various fuel oil spot also showed different degrees of change [8]. - Spreads: The spreads between different types of fuel oil showed different degrees of change, with some narrowing and some widening [8]. - Inventory: The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 6.69% [8]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - On August 10, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked Russia's Saratov refinery. On August 8, India was willing to reduce its oil imports from Russia as part of the tariff settlement and was also willing to purchase from other places. India's oil companies continued to import Russian oil, but the quantity might decrease. India's Hindustan Petroleum Corporation was looking for alternative sources of oil [9][10]. 3.3.2 Demand - US refiners' ability to purchase heavy crude oil at low prices will improve in the second half of this year. India's cabinet approved a 300 - billion - rupee LPG subsidy. Russia increased its oil processing and fuel production to meet demand [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged compared with the previous trading day [12]. 3.3.4 Market Information - Iraq set the official selling prices of Basra medium - sulfur crude oil for different regions in September. China's PPI in July was expected to improve. The prices of crude oil - related futures contracts showed different degrees of decline. India's cabinet approved a 300 - billion - rupee subsidy for state - owned fuel retailers [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc [15][17][19].