锂矿停产落地修正供应预期，碳酸锂短期情绪释放

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is restricted by the contradiction between supply and demand. Supply disturbances push up costs, but demand resilience is questionable, and capital sentiment dominates the market. There is a risk of a high - level correction if demand - side restocking falls short of expectations in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data Changes: On August 8, the price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract rose significantly to 76,960 yuan/ton, a 6.45% increase from the previous day; the basis weakened significantly to - 5,710 yuan/ton, widening by 4,560 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest exceeded 320,000 lots, a 10.65% increase, and the trading volume increased by 16.82% to 896,000 lots [1]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply Side: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.26% and 1.12% respectively during the week, strengthening the raw material cost support. Although the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained flat at 63.92%, the suspension of production at Ningde's Jiaxiaowo Mine and the slowdown of Pilbara's expansion in Australia strengthened the bullish sentiment on the supply side [2]. - Demand Side: The prices of downstream cathode materials continued to rise, with power - type lithium iron phosphate rising 0.86% to 32,850 yuan/ton. However, the demand for new energy vehicles weakened marginally, with new energy retail sales in July decreasing by 10% to 1.003 million vehicles, and the momentum for restocking in the peak season remains to be verified [2]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased slightly by 0.49% to 142,418 tons. The increased inquiry activity in the spot market and the restocking expectation in the middle of the industrial chain provided short - term support for prices [2]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - The short - term trend of the lithium carbonate futures main contract may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is restricted by the contradiction between supply and demand. Supply disturbances push up costs, but demand resilience is questionable, and capital sentiment dominates. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the implementation of mining policies in Jiangxi and the production fulfillment of cathode materials in mid - to - late August. If restocking on the demand side falls short of expectations, there is a risk of a high - level correction [3]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, the price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 76,960 yuan/ton, a 6.45% increase from the previous day; the basis was - 5,710 yuan/ton, a significant weakening. The open interest and trading volume increased significantly. The prices of lithium carbonate, lithium concentrate, and cathode materials showed different degrees of change, while the prices of some batteries remained stable [5]. 3.5 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On August 8, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,961 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,012 yuan/ton from the previous working day. With the increase in the production plans of downstream cathode materials and battery cell enterprises in August, the market procurement demand showed a warming trend, and the inquiry activity increased significantly. The expected short - term supply tightening and the approaching peak demand season increased the probability of a short - term price increase [6]. - Downstream Consumption Situation: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the national passenger car new energy market retail sales were 1.003 million vehicles, a 14% increase year - on - year but a 10% decrease from the previous month. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 54.7%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by manufacturers was 1.179 million vehicles, a 25% increase year - on - year but a 4% decrease from the previous month [7]. - Industry News: In July, driven by the national "anti - involution" policy, the photovoltaic and lithium - battery sectors adjusted rapidly, and funds flowed in, driving up the futures prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. The lithium carbonate futures main contract rose from a low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 to a high of 80,520 yuan/ton on July 25, with a maximum increase of 37.88% [8].