Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market. Be cautious about the stock index futures, but optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets. Consider going long on gold, and be cautious about other commodities with specific trading strategies for each [6][10][12] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed up. The current macro data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The yield is low, and the economy is steadily recovering. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, so stay cautious [5][6][7] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the asset valuation is low, and the economy has resilience. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to precious metals. The central banks' gold - buying and the Fed's possible rate - cut provide upward impetus. The long - term bull market is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes are currently the dominant factor, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. In the medium - term, the prices will return to the supply - demand logic. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and the possible steel industry policy is a potential positive factor. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy is the dominant factor, and the price follows coking coal. The high iron - water production supports the price, but the supply has increased, and the inventory is lower than last year. The short - term supply - demand is strong, but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. After the previous sharp fluctuations, the prices are back to the supply - demand logic. The coal production verification policy has affected the supply and pushed up the prices. The futures may continue to be strong. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18][19] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and the inventory is low. The demand for ferroalloys has a slight rebound, but the supply is still high. The cost has limited downward space. Consider going long on the spot when it falls into the loss - making range [20][21][22] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil declined significantly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the market focus shifted to the US - Russia talks. The geopolitical risk eased, leading to the decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the main crude oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil declined significantly. The ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil price difference turned to a discount, and the high - sulfur fuel oil discount narrowed. The market expects a large amount of arbitrage fuel oil in Singapore, which is negative for the price. Consider shorting the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26][27] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose slightly. The raw material price has rebounded, but the production is still slightly in loss. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment cooled, and the supply - side disturbance slowed down. The price has limited downward space. Consider going long after the price pull - back [30][31] PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. The market will continue to oscillate at the bottom [32][33] Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures declined. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand of urea has weakened recently. It will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to rise in the medium - term [34][35] PX - The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened. The downward space is limited. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to cost and policies [36] PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply change is small, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened. The processing fee is under pressure, and the large - scale producers are reducing production. Consider range - bound trading and control risks [37][38] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The domestic coal - based production has high capacity utilization, but the overseas production has more maintenance, and the inventory is decreasing. Consider range - bound trading and focus on inventory and imports [39] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has improved. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction. The price will fluctuate with the cost. Pay attention to cost and policies [40][41] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The recent device maintenance has increased, and the inventory is stable. The price is mainly supported by the cost. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Control risks [42] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda - ash futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The spot price has limited upward momentum. The supply is expected to remain high, but there is cost support from coking coal in the short - term [43][44] Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line is stable, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The downstream demand is weak. The price will be stable. Pay attention to the trading and inventory reduction in the spot market [45] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic - soda futures rose slightly. The supply has increased after the previous device maintenance. The demand from non - aluminum industries is weak, and the price will be weakly stable. The market may shift from tight to loose. Pay attention to production and demand [46][47] Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures declined. The supply has a marginal change, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak. The market is in a multi - dimensional contradiction. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [48][49] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose significantly. The mining suspension of Ningde Times has raised the cost and supported the price, but the supply - demand surplus has not been reversed. The trading logic has shifted. It is difficult for one - sided trading. Light - position operation is recommended [50] Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated slightly. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the smelting cost has no further downward space. The Chinese stimulus policy is not effective, but the Fed's possible rate - cut will support the price. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [52][53] Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, but the expectation of production resumption in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still short, and the consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [54] Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures declined slightly. The ore price has weakened, and the port inventory is increasing. The stainless - steel market is under pressure, and the consumption is weak. The refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate [55] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures declined. The US soybean production is expected to be good, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the import cost has increased. Consider going long on soybean meal after the price adjustment and exiting long positions on soybean oil at high prices [56][57][58] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand is expected to be strong in August. Consider going long on palm oil [59][60] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices declined. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory is at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed - related products [61][63] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic terminal demand is weak. The new - season production is expected to increase. Wait and see in the short - term and consider shorting on price rebounds [64][66][67] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures declined. The Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, and India and Thailand are expected to have a good harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but the import volume will be high before October. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [68][69][70] Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures rose slightly. The expected apple production reduction has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly. Consider shorting on price rebounds [70][71][72] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live - pig futures rose. The northern pig price may weaken, and the southern pig price may be stable with narrow fluctuations. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74][75] Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in August, and the consumption is less than expected. Consider a 9 - 10 reverse - spread strategy [76][77][78] Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The US corn supply is abundant, and the domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. The consumption is recovering, and the inventory pressure has reduced. Consider buying out - of - money call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [79][80][81] Logs - The previous trading day, log futures declined. The import cost is stable, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand has increased, and the futures market sentiment is strong. The short - term bullish sentiment is expected to be strong [82][83]
早间评论-20250811
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-08-11 07:43