天然橡胶周报（RU&NR）：市场暂无驱动，橡胶偏弱震荡-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the natural rubber industry is bearish. The industry may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term due to factors such as improving weather in production areas leading to increased supply, slightly decreasing mid - stream inventory, and narrow - fluctuating downstream operating rates, along with changeable sentiment in the commodity market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market currently lacks a clear driving force and is in a weak and volatile state. The supply in production areas is gradually increasing as the weather improves, the mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream tire production capacity utilization rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The overall commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious trading logic in the short - term [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply situation varies in different regions. In China, Yunnan's supply decreased slightly due to rainfall, while Hainan's supply increased but was still below the seasonal average. In Thailand, the supply increased significantly, putting pressure on raw material prices. In Vietnam, the supply increased steadily seasonally, and the glue price was firm. Overall, the supply factor is bearish [3]. - Demand: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next period. The demand factor is neutral [3]. - Inventory: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.4% to 128.9 million tons. The inventory factor is neutral [3]. - Basis/Spread: The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both widened this week. The basis factor is neutral [3]. - Profit: The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 decreased, the theoretical production profit of Hainan domestic state - owned concentrated latex increased, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex improved. The profit factor is neutral [3]. - Valuation: The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still relatively high. The valuation factor is bearish [3]. - Macro and Policy: There are disturbances from the state reserve dumping policy and domestic macro - policy sentiment. The macro and policy factor is neutral [3]. - Investment View: Due to the improving weather in production areas, the upstream supply is gradually increasing. The mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious logic. It may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, the long - RU2601 short - RU2509 arbitrage should gradually take profit around 1000 [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: This week, natural rubber futures fluctuated weakly. As of August 8, the RU main contract closed at 14,575 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton (+2.85%) for the week, and the 20 - day rubber main contract closed at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton (+2.00%) for the week [6]. - Spot Market: Spot prices rebounded. The RU2509 contract accelerated the position transfer, and the total position of RU + NR continued to decline. The RU - NR spread rebounded, and there may be reverse arbitrage opportunities [9][17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: The precipitation in production areas has decreased, which is conducive to the increase in rubber supply [40]. - Main Producing Countries' Output: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63]. - Main Producing Countries' Exports: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73]. - China's Imports: From January to June, China imported 3.1257 million tons of natural rubber (+26.47%). In July 2025, China imported a total of 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 4.709 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8% [86][93]. - Mid - stream Inventory: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Qingdao also decreased [102][109]. - Downstream Tire Demand: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [110][111]. - Downstream Tire Inventory: The inventory of semi - steel tires in Shandong is at a high level [120]. - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In June, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year. In July 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% [128][138]. - Tire Exports: From January to June, China exported 4.71 million tons of tires (+4.5%). In June, the export volume and amount of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [139][146]. - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and Thai latex rebounded [148].