贵金属期货周报：关税和美联储降息预期利多，贵金属偏强运行-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: The US tariff policy has increased the average import tariff to the highest level in a century, leading to complex international trade situations and increasing the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The weak US non - farm payrolls data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data have raised market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for precious metals [3]. - Capital: Last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. Gold ETF funds inflows increased, while silver ETF funds inflows slowed. Hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold, and the non - commercial net long positions in silver slightly decreased [3]. - Strategy: Multiple factors are positive for precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will be strong in the short - term. The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, with an upward trend in the short - term. For the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to short - term long - entry opportunities and buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The prices of gold and silver in both domestic and foreign markets generally increased last week. For example, the spot price of gold in the London market increased by 1.41%, and the COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.24%. The prices of silver also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - Gold - to - Silver Ratio: The gold - to - silver ratio in both domestic and foreign markets decreased last week, and it is expected to continue to repair under the loose monetary policy, which will open up the price elasticity space for silver [10]. - Price Difference: The price difference between domestic and foreign precious metals slightly increased. The US tariff policy and economic data have affected the market, and precious metals showed a strong trend [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Factors - US Dollar Index: Weak US economic data has increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar index to weaken and providing support for precious metal prices [14]. - US Treasury Yields: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries decreased slightly, increasing market concerns about the US economic slowdown and being positive for precious metals [17]. - Key Economic Data: In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The CPI in June also rebounded. The July ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the services PMI was 50.1, indicating a slowdown in the economy. Retail sales in June rebounded, and employment data showed a weakening labor market [23][26][29][32]. - Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The weak economic data has significantly increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Trump's nomination of a dovish Fed governor has further pushed up the rate - cut expectations [35]. - Central Bank Gold Buying: 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. The global central bank's gold - buying trend provides support for precious metal prices [37]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of August 5, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 13,500 lots to 237,100 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 8,700 lots to 50,700 lots [40]. - ETF Positions: As of August 8, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 65.86 tons [41]. 3.4 Other Elements - Inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.34% to 38.585 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.03% to 506.4924 million ounces. Low silver inventories and strong industrial demand provide room for price increases [45]. - Demand: In August 2025, the global gold reserve increased, and the total global gold demand in the second quarter increased by 3% year - on - year. The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage in 2025, with strong industrial demand [48]. - Key Events This Week: The US will release economic data such as CPI, PPI, and retail sales, and Fed officials will give speeches, which may provide more guidance for the Fed's rate - cut decision [51].