Guoxin Securities·2025-08-11 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - Retail demand in July for home appliances remains strong despite the seasonal downturn, with air conditioning retail sales growing over 30% [1][18]. - The decline in home appliance exports has narrowed to 3% in July, with expectations for a return to stable growth as tariff policies ease [2][29]. - The U.S. housing market shows resilience, with expectations for recovery following anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, which could positively impact home appliance demand [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Boss Electric for kitchen appliances; and Bear Electric, Roborock, and Ecovacs for small appliances [4][12][13]. 2. Retail and Export Performance - July retail performance shows strong growth in air conditioners (+39.4% online, +36.5% offline), washing machines (+21.6% online, +15.7% offline), and significant growth in small kitchen appliances like rice cookers (+17.6% online, +12.0% offline) [1][18]. - Home appliance exports in July reached 59.55 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year decline, with a slight increase in export prices [2][29]. 3. Market Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +1.14% this week, outperforming the broader market [42]. - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum increased by 1.1% and 2.5% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices rose by 0.8% [45][56]. - Shipping indices for routes to the U.S. and Europe showed a decline, indicating potential cost pressures in logistics [57]. 4. Company Earnings Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for key companies include Midea Group at 5.62 yuan for 2025, Gree Electric at 6.34 yuan, and Haier Smart Home at 2.26 yuan [5][67].