Workflow
环保行业跟踪周报:环卫无人订单加速增长+小吨位经济性渐近,水价市场化+现金流拐点,下一个垃圾焚烧-20250811
Soochow Securities·2025-08-11 09:49

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the accelerating growth of orders for unmanned sanitation equipment and the approaching economic viability of small-tonnage equipment, alongside the marketization of water prices and a cash flow turning point, indicating a potential next phase for waste incineration [1][5] Summary by Sections Unmanned Sanitation Equipment - The economic viability of small-tonnage unmanned sanitation equipment is improving, with orders showing a scattered growth trend. One unit plus one operator can replace 3-4 workers, achieving economic feasibility as prices drop to 200,000 yuan [9][10] - The market potential for unmanned sanitation equipment is estimated to reach hundreds of billions, with a conservative assumption of a 20% replacement rate leading to a market space of 575 billion yuan for small-tonnage and 761 billion yuan for large-tonnage equipment [10][11] - Orders for unmanned sanitation equipment are projected to grow by 129% year-on-year in 2025, with over 180 projects expected [12] Waste Incineration - The report emphasizes that declining capital expenditures will enhance free cash flow and dividends in the waste incineration sector. The sector's free cash flow turned positive in 2023 and is expected to continue improving [14][16] - Companies like Junxin and Green Power are projected to have significant dividend payouts, with Junxin's dividend ratio reaching 94.59% in 2024 [14][16] Water Operations - The water operations sector is poised for growth due to marketization and improved cash flow, with companies like Xingrong and Hongcheng Environment expected to maintain high dividend ratios [18][21] - The report suggests that water price reforms will lead to sustainable growth, with potential for significant valuation increases similar to trends seen in the U.S. water industry [18][20] Industry Trends - The report notes a 90.56% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a penetration rate of 15.86% [28] - The average price of biodiesel remains stable, with a slight increase in profitability per ton [37] - The lithium battery recycling sector is experiencing a decline in profitability, with fluctuating metal prices impacting margins [40]