Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with an unchanged fundamental surplus. However, LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and domestic bullish sentiment is strong, making it difficult for zinc prices to decline rapidly. Considering that the rebound in zinc prices suppresses the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers and the hedging pressure after the rise in zinc prices, the strategy is still to short on rallies, with an operating range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.76% to 22,400 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 0.87% to 22,515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 3.83% to 2,834 US dollars/ton [12]. 2. Raw Material Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate port inventories continued to decline. As of August 8, Lianyungang imported zinc ore inventory was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the total inventory of 7 ports was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,000 tons [23][25]. - Zinc concentrate profits recovered with the rise in zinc prices. As of August 7, zinc concentrate enterprise production profit was 4,052 yuan/metal ton. In June, zinc concentrate imports were 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%; from January to June, cumulative imports were 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [26][32]. - Import TC continued to increase. As of August 8, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 82.25 US dollars/dry ton [33][35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Refined zinc enterprise production profits continued to improve. As of August 7, refined zinc enterprise production profit was - 112 yuan/ton. In July, domestic refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons, and it is expected to reach about 620,000 tons in August [36][41]. - The Shanghai - London ratio declined, and the import window was closed. As of August 8, refined zinc import profit was - 1,753.52 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [42][44]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 Galvanizing - Galvanizing开工率 increased by 0.58 percentage points to 57.35%. Some previously减产 enterprises recovered, driving a slight increase in开工. Terminal market orders were weak, with only tower orders being acceptable, and export orders were weakened due to tariffs [48][50]. - Galvanizing raw material inventories increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices were weak, and galvanizing enterprises replenished stocks at low prices. As zinc prices rebounded, purchasing sentiment weakened, and raw material inventories slightly increased. Galvanizing finished product inventories increased due to increased开工 and average orders [51][53]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - Zinc alloy prices rebounded. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 0.74% to 23,095 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 0.72% to 23,645 yuan/ton [58][60]. - Die - casting zinc alloy开工率 increased by 0.18 percentage points to 48.42%. Some enterprises resumed production, driving an overall increase in production. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, and if shipments remained weak, enterprise开工 might decline [61][63]. - Die - casting zinc alloy raw material inventories decreased due to high zinc prices and strong purchasing pressure. Finished product inventories increased slightly [64][67]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - Zinc oxide prices rebounded. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 0.94% to 21,500 yuan/ton [69]. - Zinc oxide enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.45 percentage points to 55.68%. It was in the off - season, and开工 fluctuated slightly. Terminal rubber - grade orders did not improve, ceramic - grade demand weakened, and electronic - grade orders were acceptable due to grid support [70][72]. - Zinc oxide raw material inventories decreased as enterprises mainly made rigid purchases due to rising zinc prices. Finished product inventories increased [73][75]. 4. Inventory - Shanghai zinc social inventories continued to increase. As of August 7, SMM zinc ingot three - place inventories were 113,200 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [78][80]. - SHFE inventories increased. As of August 8, SHFE inventory was 65,900 tons. LME inventories decreased. As of August 7, LME inventory was 81,500 tons [81][83]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the market has experienced both supply surpluses and shortages in different months in 2024 - 2025 [89].
有色金属周报(锌):过剩格局不改,关注逢高布空机会-20250811
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-11 09:57