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银河期货花生日报-20250811
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-11 09:56

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of peanuts is still low, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the peanut prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short term. The price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. With the expected increase in planting area, decrease in planting cost, and the listing of some spring peanuts, Peanut 10 will continue to oscillate narrowly [5][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - Futures Market: PK604 closed at 7960, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 24 (up 26.32%) and an open interest of 252 (up 6.33%); PK510 closed at 8074, down 24 (-0.30%), with a trading volume of 34,942 (up 3.59%) and an open interest of 98,959 (down 0.27%); PK601 closed at 7948, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 3,815 (up 76.70%) and an open interest of 16,339 (up 8.21%) [3]. - Spot Market: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.2 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.25 - 4.35 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of peanut oil was 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - price of oil mills was 8110 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil was 14800 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton [5]. - By - products: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was strong, reaching 2930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from yesterday. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and the peanut meal was expected to be weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3250 yuan/ton [8]. - Spreads: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 12 (unchanged), PK04 - PK10 was - 114 (up 14), and PK10 - PK01 was 126 (down 14) [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China were stable, and the price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was also stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively weak in the short term. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, and the prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanut 10 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see, and mainly short after a rebound [10]. - Month - spread: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [14][20][23].