玉米淀粉日报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn supply is abundant, and although the price has been falling, the decline space is limited due to significant trading volume at the current level. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2,100 yuan. [5] - The domestic corn spot market is relatively stable in the short - term, but is under pressure from imports and domestic corn auctions. In North China, the supply of corn is expected to be tight in August due to low trader inventories and some feed enterprises' stocking. [5][7] - The corn starch inventory has increased this week. In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a loss state. The short - term 09 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Disk: For corn futures, contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509 had closing prices of 2,188, 2,255, and 2,262 respectively, with price changes of 4, 7, and 7 and percentage changes of 0.18%, 0.31%, and 0.31% respectively. For corn starch futures, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 had closing prices of 2,560, 2,616, and 2,642 respectively, with price changes of 8, 7, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.31%, 0.27%, and 0.00% respectively. [3] - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices in different regions showed some fluctuations, with prices in Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, and other places ranging from 2,220 to 2,514 yuan. Starch spot prices in different enterprises were between 2,800 and 3,020 yuan, with a 30 - yuan decrease in Hengren Gongmao. [3] - Spreads: Corn inter - period spreads such as C01 - C05 was - 67 with a change of - 3, and starch inter - period spreads like CS01 - CS05 was - 56 with a change of 1. The cross - variety spreads, for example, CS09 - C09 was 380 with a change of - 7. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn supply is loose, and the price decline space is limited. The domestic corn spot market is relatively stable in the short - term, but is affected by imports and auctions. In North China, the supply is expected to be tight in August, and the price is expected to have strong support around 2,400 yuan/ton at the end of August. [5][7] - Starch: The inventory of corn starch has increased. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state. The short - term 09 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The domestic 09 corn futures contract will fluctuate within a narrow range. Short - term long positions can be taken when the 09 corn price pulls back, and short - term short positions can be taken at high prices for the 01 corn contract. [10] - Arbitrage: Buy spot and short 09 corn in a rolling manner, and wait and see for the spread between 09 corn and starch. [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategies suggest that enterprises with spot positions can close out short positions in corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell at high prices and operate in a rolling manner. [13] 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spreads, corn starch 9 - 1 spreads, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spreads from different years. [15][16][17]