甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints -受宏观影响煤炭偏强，能化走势趋于一致，但交割临近品种基本面有强弱差异 [4] -甲醇09合约8月港口到港多，华东华南库存基本定满，港口09前压力大；内地因宝丰持续外采维持偏强，但传统下游采购积极性低 [4] -甲醇短期见底需看到港口倒流或内地停止外采 [4] -海外本月伊朗发运快，8月发运34万附近，本月预期80 - 90万，港口累库预期偏强 [4] -09基本面偏弱，关注下游抵抗行为、后续到货压力、港口 - 内地价差及港口提货情况 [4] -本周预计港口甲醇库存累库 [5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 2200 - 2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about methanol price decline - Strategy: - To prevent inventory losses, short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry interval of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent sharp price drops, with a hedging ratio of 50% - Sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital costs, with an entry interval of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - Scenario: Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders - Strategy: - To prevent rising procurement costs, buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry interval of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry interval of 20 - 25 [3]