Orient Securities·2025-08-11 10:35Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The logic of the bond bull market remains unchanged, but the market has entered a phase sensitive to negative factors. The overall environment is not bad, but there are potential disturbances. The bond market's recovery path may not be smooth, and the yield is likely to fluctuate with a downward bias [4][7]. - The expectation of "both stocks and bonds rising, with stocks outperforming bonds" remains unchanged. The short - end of credit bonds has started to recover, and the subsequent downward speed depends on the return rhythm of market allocation forces [4][8]. - Although the mainstream view in the market is that the fourth quarter is an ideal time to invest in credit bonds, there are also opportunities to go long currently. For allocation portfolios, they can increase holdings when yields are high, starting from 2 - 3Y bonds [4][9]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - Bond Market Situation: The bond bull logic persists, but the market is sensitive to negatives. The previous stock and commodity market rallies affected the bond market, and the current rotation of hot stock sectors slows down the bond market's recovery. There will also be seasonal redemption pressure on wealth management products starting from the end of August [4][7]. - Credit Bond Recovery: The short - end of credit bonds has begun to recover, and the narrowing of credit spreads may be hindered by liquidity considerations. The recovery of medium - and long - term bonds depends on the return of market allocation forces [4][8]. - Investment Strategy: It is recommended to gradually increase credit positions, starting from 2 - 3Y bonds. For 3Y or less urban investment bonds, look for higher returns, and pay attention to liquidity. For secondary perpetual bonds, trading is recommended, and they can be bought on rallies [4][9]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - Bond Default and Overdue: As of August 7, 2025, Guohou Asset Management Co., Ltd. failed to redeem the principal of 1.123 billion yuan, interest of 68.928 million yuan, and compensation of 148,600 yuan for the "H22 Guohou 1" bond, with a total overdue amount of 1.1920766 billion yuan [11]. - Major Negative Events: Many companies, such as Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Fangyuan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., and others, had negative events such as asset auctions, debt defaults, and being listed as dishonest executors [13]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - Issuance Volume and Net Financing: From August 4 to August 10, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 370.2 billion yuan, a 107% increase from the previous period. The total repayment amount was 172.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 197.3 billion yuan, the second - highest value this year [14]. - Cancellation/Postponement of Issuance: Five credit bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance, with a total scale of 5.8 billion yuan, the same as the previous period [14]. - Issuance Cost: The issuance cost of medium - rated new bonds decreased. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ were 2.08% and 2.30% respectively, with a 4bp increase and an 11bp decrease compared to the previous week [14]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - Valuation and Spread: The valuations of credit bonds at all levels and maturities continued to recover, with a central decline of about 3bp, and the credit spreads also narrowed by about 3bp [17]. - Term and Rating Spreads: The 5Y - 1Y term spread of medium - and low - rated bonds widened slightly by 1bp, while the 3Y - 1Y spread was basically flat. The AA - AAA rating spread of medium - and short - term bonds narrowed by 1bp [19]. - Credit Spreads of Urban Investment and Industrial Bonds: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in each province narrowed by about 3bp, with larger narrowing in high - valuation areas like Liaoning and Qinghai. The credit spreads of industrial bonds mainly narrowed by 2bp, slightly underperforming urban investment bonds [22][24]. - Liquidity and Transaction: The liquidity of credit bonds continued to decline slightly, with the turnover rate dropping by 0.04 percentage points to 1.77%. Six credit bonds had a price difference of more than 10%, all issued by Country Garden [25].