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深圳机场(000089):产能放量+经营杠杆,盈利有望增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen Airport [4][6][18] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of the civil aviation industry, with operational data showing continuous improvement. In 2025, the airport is projected to handle 22.1 million aircraft movements, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a passenger throughput of 32.57 million, up 10.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The opening of the third runway and T2 terminal is anticipated to positively impact revenue and cost structures, with a commitment to distribute at least 45% of the annual distributable profit to shareholders [3][4] - Non-aeronautical business diversification is expected to enhance profitability, with advertising revenue projected to reach 390 million yuan in 2024, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [2][4] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 4,164.72 million yuan in 2023 to 6,051.75 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.02% [5][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 396.69 million yuan in 2023 to 918.00 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [5][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.19 yuan in 2023 to 0.45 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [5][11]