利率债周报：债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线陡峭化下移-20250811

Report Summary Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias, and the yield curve steepened and shifted downward. Despite the rise in the stock market and commodity prices and better-than-expected July trade data suppressing market sentiment, the bond market was supported by loose liquidity and the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements. The long - term yields declined overall, with the short - term yields falling more than the long - term ones [2]. - This week, the bond market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The better - than - expected July trade data shows export resilience, but low PPI and CPI data reflect insufficient aggregate demand. The upcoming July financial data is likely to show that the credit volume will not exceed expectations and the structure may be poor. The central bank still has a strong willingness to maintain liquidity, so the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose. However, the "anti - involution" policy has improved market expectations and relieved some downward pressure on PPI. The recent good performance of the stock and commodity markets may continue to boost market risk appetite, attracting some funds out of the bond market and suppressing the bond market. Overall, the bond market is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to range between 1.65% - 1.75% [2]. Market Review Last Week Secondary Market - The bond market was strongly oscillating last week, and long - term bond yields continued to decline. The 10 - year Treasury futures' main contract rose 0.18% in the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.68bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 2.28bp, with the term spread widening [3]. - On August 4, affected by the new VAT policy, the bond market continued to decline in the morning but was pressured and weakened in the afternoon due to the rebound of the stock and commodity markets. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.24bp [3]. - On August 5, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.22bp [3]. - On August 6, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and rumors of large banks buying 7 - 8Y old bonds, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.62bp [3]. - On August 7, the better - than - expected July trade data and the rising stock market pressured the bond market, but the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements in the afternoon released a positive signal, and the bond market recovered. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.05bp [3]. - On August 8, the stock market continued to rise, but the bond market oscillated with a positive bias supported by loose liquidity. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.03bp [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 62 interest - rate bonds were issued, 30 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 808.5 billion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing was 595.9 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. Important Events Last Week - July's foreign trade data exceeded expectations. In July 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points higher than in June. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, 3.0 percentage points higher than in June. The increase in exports was mainly due to the low base in the same period last year and the "rush - to - export" and "re - export" effects caused by the changing US tariff policy. The increase in imports was due to the rebound of international commodity prices and the demand for imports in the export process [14]. - July's CPI and PPI continued to operate at a low level. In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly affected by the high base of vegetable and pork prices in the same period last year. PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with a 0.2 - percentage - point decline month - on - month, mainly due to the uncertainty in international trade, the decline in prices of some major export industrial products, and the impact of the real - estate market and electricity prices. However, the "anti - involution" policy improved the prices of domestic - dominated industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium - battery, alleviating the decline of PPI [14][15]. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants and the daily average molten - iron output decreased. The semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week [16]. - On the demand side, the BDI index rebounded slightly, while the CCFI continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [16]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated and decreased slightly, while most commodity prices rose. Rebar and copper prices increased, and crude - oil prices declined [16]. Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [27]. - The half - year national - share direct - discount rate decreased, and the volume of pledged repurchase transactions continued to increase. The R007 and DR007 both increased slightly, and the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward. The inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased slightly [28][29][30].