Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased; the reported meeting between Trump and Putin is expected to have a significant short - term impact on the market; China's July CPI data beat expectations, and under the influence of "anti - involution" and positive policy expectations, the probability of macro funds entering the market to go long has increased [6]. - After the Fed's July FOMC meeting and China's mid - year economic meeting, the short - term macro environment is in a window period, but the Trump - Putin meeting may increase market volatility. Currently, the Shanghai aluminum industry is in the off - season, with a slightly wider spot discount, general overall trading, and still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The 21,000 level is an important resistance level. Considering that social inventory is still relatively low compared to the same period, and the sentiment in China's capital market remains strong under expectation guidance, it has a strong driving effect on the Shanghai aluminum price. Therefore, the market is likely to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 [8]. Summary by Directory Alumina - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In June, the in - production capacity increased by 3.65 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly. The weekly domestic arrival volume of ore increased, but the shipment volume from Guinea decreased significantly. In June 2025, China's net alumina exports were 68,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease, with 15 consecutive months of net exports, and the export profit margin slightly narrowed [9]. - In July 2025, China's total alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.65% and a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.37% and a month - on - month increase of 1.5 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina output was 7.7493 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cumulative output this year was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In July 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 83.75%, at a moderately high level in history, returning to the same level as last year, with a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. There is still significant upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Cost - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $77 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from the previous week; the CIF average price of Australian bauxite remained unchanged at $69 per ton [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,640 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.27% [30]. Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,847.8 yuan per ton, with a profit of 418 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The alumina export profit was 73 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 26 yuan per ton [9][33][36]. Inventory - As of August 7, the port inventory of alumina was 310,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [39]. Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply situation. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In July 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68% and a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 98.40, with a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the cumulative output this year was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24][48]. - In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. It is at a historically high level, and there is limited upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's net electrolytic aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 58,600 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 18,300 tons; the cumulative net imports from January to June were 1.1635 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,700 tons. The import channel for electrolytic aluminum has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - As of August 7, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,275 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 320 yuan per ton. The scrap - to - primary aluminum price differential was 1,545 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 90 yuan per ton [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons; the cumulative imports from January to June were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88%. The monthly import volume is currently increasing year - on - year but has declined significantly month - on - month and is approaching the level of the same period in 2024. Future imports may still be affected by tariff policies [61]. Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.8737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the cumulative output this year was 32.7679 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 166,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the cumulative output this year was 909,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. Cost - The domestic spot price of alumina was relatively stable, while the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The latest price of pre - baked anodes was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. Profit - The recent smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum was 16,899 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan per ton. Based on cost calculations and the spot aluminum price, the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum was 3,850 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 122 yuan per ton [79]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum was 1,533 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week widening of 156 yuan per ton [82]. Inventory - As of August 7, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 566,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons, with no change during the week. The overall inventory increased week - on - week, but the rate of increase slowed significantly during the week, indicating off - season characteristics in the downstream [85]. - In July 2025, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 545,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons. The absolute value is currently at a historically low level, returning to the level of the same period in 2023 [88]. - As of August 7, the domestic inventory of aluminum rods was 138,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons and a decrease of 56,000 tons during the week. The current inventory of aluminum rods remains relatively high compared to the same period in history [91]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China ranged from 20,460 to 20,710 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 yuan per ton. The spot price was quoted against the August contract. The spot price increased with the market, the spot discount widened, and the off - season deepened. The downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was general [94].
进退两难，维持区间震荡
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-11 11:04