供应端消息扰动，碳酸锂期价再度大涨

I. Overall Information A. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. B. Core Viewpoints 1. This week, the lithium carbonate futures price soared for three consecutive days, with the main 2511 contract closing up 7.73% at 76,960 yuan/ton. The short - term market is still dominated by the expectation of lithium mine mining license compliance issues, and the futures price is strong [1]. 2. The polysilicon futures' main 2511 contract rose 2.42% to 50,790 yuan/ton this week. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, influenced by the anti - involution storage policy with no further details [8]. C. Strategy Recommendations 1. For lithium carbonate, the current futures price is strongly driven by expectations, with high short - term valuations. The market may fluctuate, and the risk for long positions is high. It is not recommended to chase long positions. However, if supply and demand evolve towards a production halt, the futures price may still rise [2]. 2. For polysilicon, with a meeting in Beijing next week, policy expectations may bring support. Short - term interval trading is recommended [9]. II. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Analysis A. Supply 1. Last week, lithium production from salt lakes and mica decreased due to factors like Qinghai salt lake shutdown and some lithium salt plant maintenance, leading to a significant reduction in social inventory. This week, production increased, and inventory started to accumulate. The price increase was affected by supply - side news [3]. 2. There are concerns about the renewal of mining licenses for major mines in Jiangxi on August 9. If renewal fails, it may lead to a short - term shutdown, affecting an average monthly supply of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, but the domestic supply shortage may be lower than expected [4]. B. Demand 1. Power cell orders increased this month, and overseas energy storage demand is strong. The market is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, with downstream inventory preparation and increased inquiries. Battery production in July - August increased 2 - 3% month - on - month, and is expected to have a small increase in September - October [5]. 2. Cathode material factories made necessary purchases in July and had a stronger willingness to replenish inventory when the lithium price fell below 70,000 yuan. Currently, downstream inventory has increased. However, the terminal demand for new energy passenger vehicles slowed down in July, and the channel inventory is under pressure [5]. C. Inventory This week, lithium carbonate inventory continued to accumulate, with the domestic social inventory exceeding 140,000 tons, and the spot pressure remained [6]. III. Polysilicon Fundamental Analysis A. Supply 1. This week, polysilicon production increased significantly, and the monthly production is expected to rise substantially. Although one company in Xinjiang shut down, the overall supply still exceeds demand. The short - term weekly production may continue to increase, with the August production forecast at 125,000 tons [10][12]. 2. The market is trading the supply - side changes brought by the "anti - involution" policy. Some upstream quotes are high, but there are few spot transactions, and the spot price has not improved significantly [12]. B. Demand 1. After a brief profit repair, the production of silicon wafers increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers is relatively low, leading to price increases by some silicon wafer manufacturers. In August, the production of silicon wafers increased slightly compared to July [13]. 2. The price increase of silicon materials is being transmitted to silicon wafers and battery cells, but there is no information on component price increase transactions, indicating that the upstream price increase transmission is not smooth under weak terminal demand [13]. C. Inventory This week, polysilicon manufacturers' inventory started to accumulate. Since downstream has stocked up on raw materials, the short - term replenishment is weak, and the upstream is facing inventory pressure [14].