铜周报：全球库存累升，铜价震荡运行-20250811

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Copper Weekly Report 20250811 [2] - Researchers: Wang Yanhong, Zhang Jiefu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - In the macro - aspect, copper prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation within 78000 - 78500. After the copper tariff was implemented, the first stage of COMEX copper's sharp decline to narrow the price difference ended. US "hard data" started to weaken, with the manufacturing level hitting a 9 - month low and three - month non - farm payroll data being sluggish. The market anticipates a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear. In China, risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [4][91]. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, the term structure continued to flatten, and China's copper output in July reached a new high. The key lies in overseas fundamental changes, especially the future flow of 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (a 170,000 - ton increase this year). It may flow back to the LME copper market, and the price may be adjusted through COMEX copper's continued decline and a subsequent strength reversal [4][91]. - Regarding the strategy, the domestic copper price game has become dull with both long and short positions reducing. Since the main price variables are overseas and it is currently in a window of macro - expectation changes with a flat fundamental situation, some put - option positions can be added in the low - volatility environment [4][91]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - PMI and Economic Data: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, and China declined. The US manufacturing PMI hit a 9 - month low, and China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders decreased, raw material prices rose, and finished - product inventory declined [13][14]. - Interest - rate Expectations: The US "hard data" weakened, and the market expects a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear [14]. - Domestic Situation: China's risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [14]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - Global Production: In 2024, the global copper mine output was 22.835 million tons, a 2.54% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative output was 9.524 million tons, a 3.27% increase. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus in 2025 [22]. - China's Imports: In 2024, China imported 28.114 million tons of copper concentrate, a 2.1% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative import was 14.7543 million tons, a 6.4% increase, but the import data in June declined [26]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - The SMM import copper concentrate index on August 8 was - 38.06 dollars/ton, up 4.03 dollars/ton from the previous week. The PT Gresik smelter's extended maintenance and the approaching expiration of Indonesia's export quota led to a rise in spot TC [31]. Refined Copper Production - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper output increased by 3.94 tons month - on - month. It is expected to decline by 0.6 tons in August due to supply shortages [37]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper and exported 457,500 tons. In 2025, from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons (an 8.6% decrease), and exports were 307,900 tons (a 1.97% increase) [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 2.25 million tons of copper scrap. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.1454 million tons, a 0.5% decrease. The import source structure changed [48]. Consumption - end - Power and Grid Investment: In 2024, power investment increased by 12.14%, and grid investment increased by 15.26%. In 2025, from January to June, power investment increased by 5.9%, and grid investment increased by 14.6% [53]. - Wire and Cable: Related to grid investment, no detailed new data provided [55]. - Air - conditioning: In 2024, the air - conditioning output increased by 9.7%. In 2025, from January to June, it increased by 5.5%, and the industry entered the off - season [58]. - Automobile: From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% respectively [63]. - Real Estate: In 2024, real - estate completion and new - start areas declined. In June 2025, the completion area declined by 14.3%, and the decline narrowed [66]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the three exchanges was 502,000 tons, a 28,000 - ton increase. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 79,000 tons, a 2,100 - ton decrease [72]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of August 5, the CFTC non - commercial long net positions were 20,686 lots, a 16,661 - lot decrease. Both long and short positions decreased [74]. Premiums and Discounts - As of August 8, the LME copper spot was at a discount of - 69.55 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium first declined and then rose. Imported goods will suppress the premium in the future [85]. Basis - As of August 8, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 210 yuan/ton [87]. Strategy - In the current situation of dull domestic copper - price game, with major price variables overseas, in the window of macro - expectation changes and flat fundamentals, add some put - option positions in the low - volatility environment [4][91]