钢材期货周度报告：库存继续累积，关注限产扰动-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, steel prices may fluctuate and adjust, with the situation of repeated rises and falls still existing. Cost still supports steel prices, but the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased recently, and inventory continues to accumulate. [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Driven by the continuous promotion of strict investigations on coal over - production, coking coal prices rebounded again, boosting the overall sentiment of the black series. The rebar futures market rose in the short - term, but due to weak terminal demand and increased inventory accumulation, the price rebound was limited. The supply side continued to resume and increase production due to high profits, while the demand side became calmer, with expectations cooling and actual terminal demand weakening. [2][3] 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, lower the deposit - reserve ratio, and increase financing support for key areas. - Eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the machinery industry, with clear goals for 2027 and 2030. - Three departments issued a plan for the rural road improvement action, aiming to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027. - In July, the CPI turned from a 0.1% decline to a 0.4% increase month - on - month and was flat year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. - The land acquisition amount of the top 100 real - estate developers increased significantly year - on - year from January to July 2025, with a growth rate of 34.3%. - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger - car market reached 1.826 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - car market reached 987,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.0%. - In July, the monthly operating rate of major construction machinery products in China was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points. - In July, China exported 37,610,000 household appliances; from January to July, the cumulative exports were 258,961,700 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. [5][6][7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 103,400 tons, higher than last week's 94,100 tons. Affected by seasonal factors such as heavy rainfall in South and Central China, the overall market demand continued to be weak. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short - term, steel prices may fluctuate and adjust. The cost still supports steel prices, but the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased, and inventory continues to accumulate. - From the futures market, most of the black series closed down, with only coking coal closing up slightly. The rebar main contract 10 closed at 3213, down 23 points on the day, up 10 points from last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 3215, down 69 points from last week. The latest position was 1.612 million lots, a reduction of 149,000 lots from last Friday. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, stay on the sidelines; for steel profits, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy. [30]