铅：供应支撑底部等待消费驱动

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the losses of primary and secondary lead enterprises have widened, but there have been few production cuts or restarts, resulting in little marginal change in supply. On the demand side, the peak season is not obvious, dealers' inventories are high, and inventory reduction is poor. The recent marginal variable comes from the sewage inspection in Anhui, where individual secondary smelters have slightly reduced production. The overall production of primary and secondary smelters is normal, and there is no significant change in supply increment. The rigid cost of concentrates and waste batteries supports the bottom of the lead price, and the lead price is mainly in a strong oscillation, with weak monthly spread/ratio drivers [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Company Production and News - Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and lead concentrate production was 6,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6]. - GatosSilver's zinc metal production in Q2 2025 was about 7,300 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. Its 2025 zinc production guidance was raised to 52 - 56 million pounds [6]. - Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government to promote the reconstruction of smelters and the development of key metals [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Processing Fees - The national average price of lead concentrate processing fees this week was 435 yuan/metal ton, a month-on-month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3. Lead Concentrate Imports - In June 2025, the import volume of lead ore and its concentrates was about 118,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13.54% and a year-on-year increase of 26.90% [9]. - As of August 1, the port inventory was 17,700 tons, with a slight increase. The tender price of imported lead ore was inverted by over 100 US dollars, and smelters had poor acceptance [13]. 4. Futures Prices - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a high of 17,010 yuan/ton, a low of 16,820 yuan/ton, and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.8%. Structurally, Shanghai lead maintained a C structure with small monthly spread contradictions [15]. - Last week, London lead opened at 2,010 US dollars/ton, with a high of 2,042 US dollars/ton, a low of 1,994 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,040 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.42%. Structurally, the outer market maintained a Contango structure, and the LME lead 0 - 3 spread strengthened, operating around -20 US dollars/ton [18]. 5. Industry Profits - The profit of the primary lead industry was a loss of 800 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. There were both production cuts and restarts in primary lead, and after offsetting, production was expected to maintain an increase [25]. - The profit of the secondary lead industry was a loss of 1,000 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. Some smelters in Anhui and Hebei planned to end maintenance, and secondary lead supply would increase slightly [27]. 6. Waste Battery Supply - This week, the tax-excluded price of waste electric batteries in most regions was maintained at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton. The market found it difficult to purchase at this price, and the overall price of waste batteries was slightly weak [30]. 7. Inventories - As of August 6, the LME lead ingot inventory was 269,400 tons, unchanged month-on-month [34]. - As of August 1, the SHFE lead inventory was 63,300 tons, unchanged month-on-month [35]. - As of Thursday this week, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 71,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,800 tons [38]. 8. Lead-Zinc Ratio - As of Thursday this week, the domestic lead-zinc ratio was 0.75, and the foreign lead-zinc ratio was 0.71 [40].