铁合金周报：持续复产中-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Manganese Silicide: Core view - Neutral; Month spread - Neutral; Spot - Bearish; Steel production - Bullish; Inventory - Bearish; Cost - profit - Neutral [3] - Ferrosilicon: Core view - Bearish; Month spread - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Steel & Magnesium production - Neutral; Inventory - Bearish; Cost - profit - Neutral [4] Core Views - Manganese Silicide: This week, the market fluctuated after a rally. Supply increased, demand from the steel industry improved slightly, and the overall cost rose. The spot market had average trading volume, and the inventory of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts continued to decline [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The market fluctuated this week. The spot trading atmosphere was poor. Supply increased and was still in the process of resuming production. Demand from the steel industry increased slightly, while the production of magnesium decreased, and export volume remained weak. The cost was expected to rise in the long - term [4]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicide Manganese Ore - Port inventory totaled 438.5 million tons, with a significant differentiation between northern and southern regions. Tianjin Port's inventory decreased to 353.5 million tons, lower than last year's level, while Qinzhou Port's inventory increased slightly to 84.5 million tons, higher than last year's level [10]. - Jupiter announced the shipment price for manganese ore to China in September 2025. Port manganese ore prices declined slightly [15]. Supply - As of August 8, the weekly production of manganese silicide increased to 195,800 tons, with daily average production rising in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi [28]. Demand - As of August 8, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises increased slightly to 125,200 tons. The weekly production of five major steel products increased to 869,210 tons, and the proportion of rebar increased [38]. Price - The spot market had average trading volume, and prices fluctuated with the market. The price in Inner Mongolia was around 5,820 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it was 5,950 yuan/ton. HeSteel's first inquiry price for the tender was 6,000 yuan/ton [49]. Cost - Profit - As of August 7, the immediate profit of manganese silicide was low. Although the profit improved in the short - term after the market rally, the overall price fluctuated greatly, and the continuous increase in chemical coke compressed the profit margin [54]. Month Spread - As of August 8, the September - January spread of manganese silicide was - 80 yuan/ton, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period [61]. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 7, the total of manganese silicide warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 387,000 tons, and the overall trend continued to decline [63]. Ferrosilicon Supply - As of August 8, the weekly production increased to 109,100 tons. The production in Inner Mongolia increased significantly, while that in Ningxia decreased slightly, and the production in Shaanxi remained unchanged [67]. Demand - The demand from steel mills increased slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 20,300 tons, slightly higher than the historical average [70]. - The production of magnesium decreased slightly, and the export price of magnesium remained stable [78]. Cost - Profit - As of August 7, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon worsened, but the overall profit was good. Only Shaanxi had significant losses, while Ningxia had relatively high profits [98]. Month Spread - As of August 7, the September - January spread of ferrosilicon was - 178 yuan/ton, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period and was at a historically low level [100]. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 7, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 107,300 tons, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period but still at a high level [103]. Supply - Demand Balance Forecast Manganese Silicide - From October 2024 to December 2025, the total supply and demand showed fluctuations. There were periods of surplus and shortage, and the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also changed over time [105]. Ferrosilicon - From October 2024 to December 2025, the total supply and demand also fluctuated. There were periods of surplus and shortage, and the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption changed over time [106].