Guoxin Securities·2025-08-11 11:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Insights - The new policy in Beijing is seen as a limited measure but may signal the beginning of a new round of easing in the real estate market [4][12]. - The background for the new policy is the failure of Beijing's housing prices to stabilize, with prices declining since March [5][12]. - The marginal release of purchasing power from the new policy is expected to be limited, but it could initiate a new round of easing in first-tier cities [4][12]. - Investment opportunities exist despite the ongoing price decline, with specific stock recommendations including China Jinmao, Greentown China, Beike-W, and I Love My Home [14]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On August 8, 2025, Beijing's housing authority announced adjustments to housing purchase policies, allowing families meeting certain criteria to buy unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road [4][16]. - The policy also allows single adults to follow the same purchasing limits as families [17]. Market Conditions - Since March, Beijing's housing prices have resumed their downward trend, with a month-on-month decline of -1.1% over the past two months, returning to levels seen before the "924" policy in 2024 [5][12]. - The price index for Beijing has not shown any advantage compared to other major cities since 2019, with a decline of approximately 20% from the early 2023 peak in key districts [5][12]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates that if the price decline continues for three more months, more substantial "stabilization" policies may be expected [12]. - The overall sentiment among residents regarding future price increases remains pessimistic, with only 8.9% expecting price rises in the second quarter of 2025, marking a historical low [9][10].