GEM(SZ:002340) Fo Shan Jin Kong Qi Huo·2025-08-11 11:16Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and US tariff agreements impact metal prices. After the nickel price followed the anti - involution sentiment and declined, the industry chain's continuous losses still provide strong cost support. The fundamentals have changed little, with pure nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. In August, the production schedules of domestic electrowinning nickel and Indonesian secondary nickel continued to rise. During the traditional off - season, downstream demand was sluggish. Although there was an expectation of increased stainless - steel production in August, there were many disturbances from production cuts and maintenance due to policies, and the spot market transactions were weak. The improvement in the ternary industry chain was limited, with the growth rate of electric vehicle retail sales slowing down in July and the market share of ternary batteries being continuously squeezed by lithium iron phosphate. As the rainy season was coming to an end, nickel ore port inventories continued to accumulate, and there was an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - Main Viewpoints: Macro factors and cost support affect nickel price; fundamentals show oversupply, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season [10]. - Industry News: In July 2025, GEM's Indonesian nickel project produced over 10,000 tons of nickel in a single month. Some steel mills actively controlled production in response to the national "anti - involution" policy, and northern steel mills planned maintenance from late August to early September [10]. - Important Data: This week, LME nickel inventory increased by 3150 tons, domestic inventory increased by 745 tons, and global visible nickel inventory increased by 1.57% to 253,000 tons. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3, with a premium of +24 as the mainstream. In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74%, and the estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. In August, domestic stainless - steel production was scheduled to be 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [10]. - Strategy Viewpoints: For nickel, due to the increasing production capacity of Indonesian secondary nickel and domestic electrowinning nickel and the slowdown in off - season demand growth, the oversupply situation is expected to continue. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, affected by macro sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of [117,000, 125,000] yuan/ton, and a sell - on - rally strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the current anti - involution production cuts still support the stainless - steel market. However, in the long - term, the oversupply will suppress price increases. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,300, 13,200] yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended when the price rebounds to the upper end of the range [10]. 02盘面回顾 - Nickel prices continued to fluctuate, and relevant data on domestic liquidity positions, spot premiums, and price differences between the two markets were presented [12][13]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - Nickel Ore: Nickel ore ports saw inventory accumulation, and ore prices remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines was mostly CIF42, and that from the Philippines to Indonesia was mostly CIF41. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3 [16][17]. - Nickel Iron: In July, the total production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 178,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year increase of 20.61%. The market quotation for nickel iron was firm, with the mainstream price ranging from 930 - 940 yuan/nickel [21]. - Intermediate Products: In July, nickel intermediate products increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 54,400 tons. The price followed the increase in nickel prices, the production cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the loss situation worsened [25]. - Imports: In June, nickel iron imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [28]. - Inventory: This week, LME inventory increased by 3150 tons to 212,200 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 745 tons to 39,300 tons. Spot transactions were generally cold [32]. - Electrowinning Nickel: In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. The estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. There were also detailed plans for domestic and Indonesian electrowinning nickel projects [36][38]. - Stainless Steel: Some steel mills planned production cuts and maintenance. The loss of integrated production narrowed, and the economic efficiency of scrap stainless steel became more prominent. Stainless - steel inventory continued to decline, but the social inventory was still high. Demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the traditional off - season [40][44][51]. - Ternary Industry Chain: In August, the production of lithium batteries increased, and the production of the ternary industry chain also increased, but the improvement in demand was limited [56]. - Electric Vehicles: In the first half of the year, domestic electric vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, with a sales penetration rate of 44.3%. The share of ternary batteries was squeezed by lithium iron phosphate [60]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global nickel supply surplus is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is estimated to be 389.3 million tons, while the total demand is 354.5 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 34.8 million tons. In China, the supply surplus is also expected to be 16.2 million tons in 2025 [70].