甲醇日评：焦煤仍带来情绪扰动-20250811

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report holds a bearish outlook on methanol's fundamentals. Although upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and with high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory accumulation is likely, which will suppress the spot price in East China. Despite the influence of coking coal sentiment, the rebound space of methanol is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on August 7, 2025, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2454 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%); MA09 closed at 2388 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [1]. - Spot Prices: In different regions on August 7, 2025, prices in Taicang were 2382.50 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton, -0.21%); in Shandong, 2342.50 yuan/ton (up 12.50 yuan/ton, 0.54%); in Guangdong, 2380.00 yuan/ton (-2.50 yuan/ton, -0.10%); in Shaanxi, 2127.50 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton, 0.24%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, 2235.00 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Hubei, 2375.00 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Inner Mongolia, 2105.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - Price Difference: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was -114.50 yuan/ton on August 7, 2025, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: On August 7, 2025, Ordos Q5500 was 492.50 yuan/ton (up 2.50 yuan/ton, 0.51%); Datong Q5500 was 562.50 yuan/ton (unchanged); Yulin Q6000 was 572.50 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: In Hohhot, it was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged); in Chongqing, it was 3.30 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged) [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit was 451.50 yuan/ton on August 7, 2025, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.38%); natural gas - based methanol profit was -500.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - Downstream Profits: Northwest MTO profit was 63.00 yuan/ton (unchanged); East China MTO profit was -641.57 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan/ton (1.46%); acetic acid profit was 215.84 yuan/ton, up 4.42 yuan/ton (2.09%); MTBE profit was 207.68 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton (10.66%); formaldehyde profit was -301.60 yuan/ton (unchanged); and another unnamed product's profit was 142.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic Information: Methanol's main contract MA2509 oscillated and declined on August 7, 2025, opening at 2397 yuan/ton, closing at 2388 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 291,156 lots and an open interest of 436,712 lots. All contracts except 2508 had trading volume [1]. - Foreign Information: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy and Conclusion - The previous trading day, MA oscillated within a range, and the night - session closed at 2394. The expected anti - involution policy will cause repeated fluctuations, and the large fluctuations in coking coal will affect the sentiment of coal - chemical industries. Based on the weak fundamentals, the rebound space of methanol is expected to be limited [1].