Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short-term: NR is rated neutral, while RU is rated slightly bullish [4] - Medium to long-term: RU is rated slightly bearish, and NR is rated slightly bearish [4] - RU9-1 spread: Slightly bearish [4] - RU-NR spread: Neutral [4] - Production area weather: Neutral [4] - Thai supply: Neutral [4] - Domestic supply: Slightly bullish [4] - Tires: Neutral [4] - Dairy products: Neutral [4] - Social inventory: RU is slightly bullish, and NR is slightly bullish [4] - Futures inventory: RU is neutral, and NR is neutral [4] - Non-standard spread: Slightly bearish [4] Core Views - As of August 5, RU and NR prices declined; the RU-NR spread first narrowed and then widened; the spreads of RU09-01, NR continuous one - continuous two, and continuous two - continuous three widened [4] - RU: Spot offers adjusted downward following the market, with prices falling from highs (bearish). Continuous rainfall in domestic main production areas disrupted tapping operations, supporting rubber prices (bullish). Light-colored rubber inventories continued to decline (bullish). It is expected that RU prices will fluctuate with an upward bias this week [4] - NR: In Southeast Asian main production areas, local heavy rainfall limited raw material output, supporting the stabilization of latex prices (bullish). Exports of all-steel and semi-steel tires decreased (bearish), and the operating rate dropped significantly (bearish). End-of-month shipments led to a decline in finished product inventories. It is predicted that NR prices will fluctuate widely this week [4] Summary by Related Catalogs New Energy Vehicle Development and Tire Demand - By 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles. By 2025, new energy vehicle sales will account for 20% of total new vehicle sales. The production and sales of new energy passenger and commercial vehicles will increase rapidly, with the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles rising from 8% to 18%, boosting tire matching demand [7] - Semi-steel tires: Benefit from the booming new energy vehicle sales and policy incentives (such as trade-ins), with good matching demand. All-steel tires: Mainly constrained by factors such as the sluggish real estate market, with long-term pressured demand. The replacement demand from 2020 - 2021 remains to be released [16] Inventory Status - As of August 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.35%. Bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.40%; general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.47% [29] - The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.66%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12%. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01%, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85% [29] - In previous years, inventory reduction started from April - May, but this year, inventory increased from June - July and only started to decline slightly recently [29] - As of August 3, the social inventory of light-colored rubber was 455,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.82%. The social inventory of dark-colored rubber was 804,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.12% [4] Tire Operating Rate - As of July 31, the operating rate of Chinese tire companies' all-steel tires was 61.08%, a week-on-week decrease of 3.94% [43] - As of July 31, the operating rate of Chinese tire companies' semi-steel tires was 74.45%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.42%. Some enterprises scheduled maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall operating rate. End-of-month shipments led to lower finished product inventories [45] Production Area Conditions - Precipitation was concentrated in Northeast China, with a minor impact. Attention should be paid to the situation after the ceasefire of the Thailand-Cambodia conflict [57] - In the Vietnamese production area, there was still local rainfall interference, but overall output showed a seasonal increase. In July 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports were 206,200 tons, an increase of 62,300 tons month-on-month, a 43.27% month-on-month increase, and a 10.82% year-on-year increase. From January - July, Vietnam's cumulative natural rubber exports were 903,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.95%. Tapping started in mid-April, and the peak production period is from July - November [65] - Compared with previous years, the phenological conditions were normal. Without extreme weather disturbances, overseas main production areas would continue to increase supply, with strong supply. ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons; among them, Thailand will increase by 1.2%, Indonesia will decrease by 9.8%, Malaysia will decrease by 4.2%, Vietnam will decrease by 1.3%, China will increase by 6%, India will increase by 5.6%, and other countries will increase by 3.5% [68] - In July, four typhoons landed in China, and the phased rainfall in the production areas affected the tapping rhythm. The China Meteorological Administration predicted that in August, 4 - 5 typhoons are expected to form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, fewer than the normal period (5.6). 2 - 3 typhoons are expected to land or significantly affect China (2.3 landings in the normal period) [73] Price and Spread Conditions - As of August 5, the price of Shanghai Vietnam 3L was 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Shanghai state-owned whole milk was 14,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Shanghai RSS3 was 19,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous week [93] - As of August 5, the RU-NR spread was 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. With rainfall interference in Yunnan's main production area in China and the arrival of the peak production period in Southeast Asian main production areas, the spread is expected to continue to widen [4][106][107] - As of August 5, the spread between Thai mixed spot and RU main contract narrowed to -245 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the Thai mixed spot market, after the previous rubber price increase, arbitrage positions actively increased. During the period, the rubber price declined, and arbitrage positions were less willing to sell at low prices. The decline in the spot price was less than that of RU, and the basis narrowed month-on-month [123] - As of August 5, the RU09-01 spread was -915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The RU01-05 spread was -85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. The NR continuous one - continuous two spread was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The NR continuous two - continuous three spread was -40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous week [131]
天然橡胶周报：去库可期？-20250811
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-08-11 11:25