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玉米周报:河南等地旱情缓解,玉米价格继续震荡下行-20250811
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-08-11 11:22
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The corn market is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The c2509 contract is affected by multiple negative factors such as high production, sufficient supply from imported corn, substitution by wheat and other grains, high new - crop planting area, and expected good yield. The new - crop's minimum planting cost on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift down [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - The corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the new - crop corn is growing well. The current main variable in future supply is the weather during the growing period, especially rainfall. This week, the national corn market continued to be weak, with both futures and spot prices falling significantly. Different regions have different supply and demand situations. The new - crop production expectation and cost center shift down drive the futures price down [7][8]. Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The estimated import volume for the 2024/25 period is 5 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 period [16][17]. Substitutes - Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure from imported substitutes is decreasing. The main domestic substitutes are wheat and millet, and the imported substitutes are mainly imported sorghum and barley. The wheat market is oscillating, and the current corn - wheat price difference in North China is in the substitutable range, so the substitution pressure on corn is high. In June 2025, the import volume of barley and sorghum decreased year - on - year, reducing the substitution pressure [26][28]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is generally average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, parent - stock white - feather broilers, and egg - laying chicken seedlings is at a high level, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit is at a low level, the broiler breeding profit is seasonally high, and the egg - laying chicken breeding loss has expanded [32][34]. Deep - processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has risen significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has recovered to a neutral level, about 54.8%. The production of corn starch has also increased, but the downstream提货 volume is relatively low. The production profit of corn starch is severely in the red, and the profit of corn alcohol enterprises is still in the red [54][55]. Inventory Trade Channel Corn Inventory - The inventory in trade channels and downstream is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 1, the inventory in the four northern ports continued to decline, with the total inventory dropping to about 1.9 million tons. The domestic trade inventory in southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises reached a new high in the past eight years, about 1.32 million tons [78][80]. Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of feed enterprises continues to decrease, with the available inventory days at around 30 days, and the inventory in North China and South China is relatively high [79]. Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally, with the national inventory at about 3.64 million tons, at a neutral level [79]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch, including the basis of different contracts in Jinzhou Port and Jilin area, and the spread between different contracts of corn and starch [114][124]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On August 7, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [132].