流动性周报：预期分歧是布局机会-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond at 1.75% may be challenged but remains relatively reliable. After returning to the narrow fluctuation range, the 1.65% fluctuation center position is still valid. The view that "the winning probability of the long - end yield decline has not substantially decreased, and the odds have increased during the adjustment" is maintained. In the second half of the year, with the reduction of government bond issuance after August, the re - brewing of policy rate cuts, and the realization of fundamental pressure, there is still a possibility of opening up the downward space for interest rates [2][10]. - Most institutions have a "short - term bearish, long - term bullish" expectation for the bond market, but there are differences in the specific short - term trends. The demand - side policy pattern remains unchanged, and most institutions' expectations of "high in the front and low in the back" for the fundamentals, the judgment of the upcoming reduction of supply pressure, and the long - term bullish view on the bond market remain unchanged. However, the bond market has short - term concerns, and institutions do not have high expectations for the downward space of yields [2][11]. - The marginal improvement of inflation seems imminent, but it still takes time to reverse the trend. The PPI in July may not fully reflect the impact of the increase in commodity prices. There may be more support for prices in August, but the inflation data in August is crucial [3][12]. - The impact of tax policy changes is still being implemented. The new - old bond spread of 10 - year local bonds is about 6BP, and the issuance of 3 - year Treasury new bonds is the first observation window for the new - old bond spread [3][14]. - Liquidity is loose, which is the moat of the current bond market. Monetary policy operations may bring "surprises". The market has a neutral expectation of the current monetary policy easing, and in the context of low market expectations and trading sentiment, there is a higher possibility of "surprises" in monetary policy operations [3][17]. - The existence of expected differences is the best time for trading desks to layout. In the context of low yields and low volatility, it is difficult to operate the market following the trend. The short - term expected differences are a suitable layout opportunity [4][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Expected Differences are Layout Opportunities - The 10 - year Treasury bond's 1.75% top is a signal that interest rates may break through the low - volatility range. The market's short - term expected differences are a good time to layout bond market investments [4][19]. - The inflation improvement in August is crucial. The PPI in July may not fully reflect the impact of commodity price increases, and 8 - month inflation data can verify the improvement of prices [3][12]. - The impact of tax policy changes continues. The new - old bond spread of 10 - year local bonds is about 6BP, and the 3 - year Treasury new bond issuance is an important observation window [3][14]. - Liquidity is loose, and monetary policy operations may bring "surprises". The market has a neutral expectation of monetary policy easing, and the central bank's operations are more likely to exceed expectations [3][17].