Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-11 13:11Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that on the macro - front, China's July CPI was flat year - on - year and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. The competition order in industries such as coal and photovoltaic was optimized, reducing price drag. The US and Russia were reported to be seeking a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a "flash crash" in crude oil. On the fundamental side, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fee continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price increased significantly, which further repaired smelters' profits and increased their production enthusiasm. The new production capacity in various places was gradually released, and the previously overhauled capacity resumed production, accelerating the supply growth. At present, the import loss continued to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. On the demand side, the downstream entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises decreased year - on - year. Although the downstream made purchases on dips recently, the overall trading remained dull, and the domestic social inventory continued to increase while the spot premium declined. The overseas LME inventory decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price drove up the domestic zinc price. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicated a strong long - position atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 2,834 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 213,578 lots, up 4,712 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 9,079 lots, up 1,473 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 15,494 tons, up 1,148 tons. The SHFE inventory was 65,917 tons (weekly), up 4,193 tons, and the LME inventory was 81,500 tons, down 3,450 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,560 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 0.23 US dollars/ton, up 4.09 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production of ILZSG was 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory was 91,200 tons (weekly), up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc was 13.69% (daily), down 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc was 13.69% (daily), down 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 7.69% (daily), down 1.32 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.27% (daily), down 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The US and Russia were reported to be seeking a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which would consolidate Russia's controlled territory in the conflict. Trump said he would meet Putin in Alaska on August 15. Zelensky firmly refused to make territorial concessions and stated that an agreement without Ukraine's participation would be an "invalid plan" [3].