瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the weakening domestic urea demand, the decline in urea prices has revived the downstream's willingness to buy at low prices. The unexpectedly high tender price of Indian urea has boosted market sentiment, and some device shutdowns for maintenance have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea enterprise inventory last week. Considering the limited short - term trading volume and weak domestic demand, urea enterprises may accumulate inventory again. The UR2509 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1700 - 1750 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 109,774 lots, an increase of 1,568 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 18,861; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,623, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1760 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it is 1780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 1780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Anhui, it is 1790 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic is 455 dollars/ton, an increase of 20 dollars/ton; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 460 dollars/ton, an increase of 50 dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 48.3 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the enterprise inventory is 88.76 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62%; the daily urea output is 189,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons. The urea export volume is 7 tons, an increase of 7 tons; the monthly output is 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [3]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 41.5%, an increase of 2.82%; the operating rate of melamine is 61.1%, a decrease of 2.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 million tons, a decrease of 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,300 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 88.76 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.24%. As of August 7, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 48.3 tons, a decrease of 1 ton, a decrease of 2.03%. As of August 7, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.94%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% from the previous period, showing a slight downward trend [3]. 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday. The UR2509 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1700 - 1750 [3].