Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-11 13:11Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC fee has improved but remains in the negative range, and the domestic port inventory has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still supports the copper price. The smelters are currently actively producing due to new production capacity and high by - product sulfuric acid prices, but the production growth rate may slow down due to raw material supply. The downstream consumption demand may slow down due to the off - season and US tariffs, and the inventory remains at a medium - low level. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red column expands and then slightly converges. It is recommended to trade long at low positions with a light position, paying attention to the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,020 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,747.50 dollars/ton, down 14.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 30 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the position of the Shanghai copper main contract is 160,884 hands, up 3,992 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 706 hands, up 2,829 hands. The LME copper inventory is 155,850 tons, down 150 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 81,933 tons, up 9,390 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,075 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 23,275 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,150 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,085 yuan/ton, up 565 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 58 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 45.50 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 130 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 69.55 dollars/ton, down 3.92 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons; the copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 38.06 dollars/kiloton, up 4.03 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,850 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan; the copper concentrate price in Yunnan is 69,550 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee for blister copper is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 1.302 billion tons, up 480 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 54,990 yuan; the ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.37%, up 0.30%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.70%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.84%, down 0.0023%; the at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.18, up 0.0095 [2]. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The WTO predicts that the global goods trade volume will increase by 0.9% in 2025. Fed Governor Bowman believes that core PCE inflation is approaching the 2% target and supports three interest rate cuts this year. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the US and hopes the next Fed Chairman has "forward - looking thinking". The "Thousands of Counties and Towns" new energy vehicle consumption season started in Xiaogan, Hubei on August 9, with a maximum subsidy of over 22,000 yuan. In July, the production and retail of passenger cars increased by 12.1% and 6.3% year - on - year respectively, and the production and retail of new energy vehicles increased by 22.3% and 12% year - on - year respectively [2].