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瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250811
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2500 in the short - term. Recently, the domestic methanol output has decreased slightly as the output from restored production capacity is less than the loss from maintenance and production cuts. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased significantly. After the offset of various enterprise device operations, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly last week, but it is expected to decline this week due to the expected shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin device [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2389 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 96 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 372,761 lots, down 34,313 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 92,987 lots, up 3,094 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10,088, up 1,400 [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2365 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2092.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 272.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 269 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.08 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 64.2 tons, up 7 tons; in South China ports, it is 28.35 tons, up 4.71 tons. The import profit of methanol is 42.79 yuan/ton, up 2.8 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 293,700 tons, down 30,800 tons. The methanol enterprise's start - up rate is 81.61%, down 3.75 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 41.62%, down 1.67 percentage points; dimethyl ether is 5.33%, unchanged; acetic acid is 89.24%, down 2.16 percentage points; MTBE is 66.62%, down 1.17 percentage points; olefin is 83.89%, down 1.38 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 872 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 25.24%, down 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 25.39%, down 2.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.83%, down 1.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.82%, down 1.04 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw inventory increases. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons from the previous period, a 9.50% decline; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons from the previous period, a 4.37% increase. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.11%, a 1.5% increase [2]