Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-11 13:26Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. Although the current supply is tight, downstream demand is weak, and there are expectations for quotas. Cotton is in the process of position transfer, and the cotton 2601 contract fluctuates around 13,850 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,790 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 24,791 lots, down 4,217 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are 97 lots, down 22 lots. - Cotton main - contract positions are 246,206 lots, down 14,590 lots; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 17,882 lots, up 829 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 8,172 lots, down 80 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 75 lots, down 8 lots [2] 现货市场 - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,178 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; China's yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,620 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,139 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,196 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 24,019 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - China's national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, and the national cotton output is 616 million tons, an increase of 54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,459 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 85 million tons, up 2.4 million tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 3 million tons, down 1 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 982 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. - The national commercial inventory of cotton is 282.98 million tons, down 62.89 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the grey - fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.779 billion meters, up 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 206.5 million tons, up 11.4 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,526,671,400 US dollars, up 168,897,700 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,204,820,700 US dollars, down 58,356,600 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.67%, down 1.11%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.67%, down 1.11%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 11.15%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.78%, unchanged [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton continued to decline. As of August 8, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 2.0067 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,400 tons (a decrease of 6.97%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.2819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129,200 tons (a decrease of 9.16%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 404,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons (a decrease of 1.61%). - Last Friday, the ICE cotton December contract rose 0.42%. On Monday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.47%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.15% [2] 提示关注 - There is no news today. In the next few days, the maximum temperature in Xinjiang will be relatively high. Pay attention to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [2]