政府债周报（8/10）：2025年两万亿特殊再融资债发行近尾声-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the issuance progress of local government bonds and special refinancing bonds in 2025. It details the actual and forecasted issuance amounts of local government bonds from August 4 - 10 and August 11 - 17, as well as the issuance status of special refinancing bonds and special new special - purpose bonds as of August 10 [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - From August 4 - 10, local bonds issued a total of 1654.59 billion yuan, including 475.49 billion yuan of new bonds (72.83 billion yuan of new general bonds and 402.66 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 1179.10 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (819.06 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 360.04 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [2][5]. - From August 11 - 17, the disclosed issuance of local bonds is 914.32 billion yuan, including 493.56 billion yuan of new bonds (303.21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 190.34 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 420.76 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (286.32 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 134.45 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [2][4]. - The plan and actual issuance of local bonds in July and August are compared, and the monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing of local bonds in recent months are presented [15][17][21]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 66.68%, and that of new special - purpose bonds is 63.67% [26]. - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local bond maturities as of August 10 is presented [26]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - As of August 10, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 43557.43 billion yuan, with 19672.18 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 12.11 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (5647.00 billion yuan), Hunan (2787.32 billion yuan), and Shandong (2413.98 billion yuan) [6]. - As of August 10, the total disclosed amount of special new special - purpose bonds in 2025 is 4407.33 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 16312.46 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2102.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (1188.60 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (951.00 billion yuan), Hebei (391.43 billion yuan), and Hubei (369.13 billion yuan) [6]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local bonds are presented, including the spreads of different tenors and the changes over time [39]. - The second - level spreads of local bonds in different regions from May to August 2025 are provided [42]. 3.5 New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions The monthly statistics of the investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, and the latest month's statistics only consider the issued new bonds [45].