7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [70]. Core Insights - In July, the growth rate of breeding sows across three parties generally narrowed, indicating a focus on changes in pig production capacity. The average price of live pigs in China on August 8 was 13.67 CNY/kg, down 0.42 CNY/kg week-on-week [2][9]. - The white chicken market is experiencing a phase of reduced supply, leading to continued price increases. The average price of white feathered meat chickens on August 8 was 7.14 CNY/kg, up 0.31 CNY/kg week-on-week [3][33]. - The agricultural sector is focusing on the promotion of high-quality seeds and technology selection to enhance food security, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs initiating a project for the 2025 national crop variety promotion directory [44]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs being sold has continued to decline, with the average weight as of August 7 being 127.80 kg, down 0.18 kg week-on-week. This is attributed to the ongoing high temperatures affecting feed intake and growth rates [21][31]. - The slaughter volume of sample enterprises has remained stable, with an average daily slaughter of 137,100 pigs, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week [12][31]. - The policy focus on capacity regulation is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity, potentially raising the long-term price center for pigs [31][32]. Poultry Sector - The supply of broiler chickens is tightening due to previous breeding losses, resulting in a continued rise in prices. The average price of broiler chicks was 3.13 CNY/chick, up 0.56 CNY/chick week-on-week [3][33]. - The egg market has seen a slight decline in prices, with the average price of eggs at 6.23 CNY/kg, down 0.51 CNY/kg week-on-week, although there is potential for a rebound due to upcoming seasonal demand [3][36]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is showing strength, with the futures price on August 8 reaching 3,094 CNY/ton, up 57 CNY/ton week-on-week, driven by concerns over a soybean supply gap in the fourth quarter [45][48]. - The current domestic demand for soybean meal is supported by strong import needs from Brazil, leading to a bullish outlook for the market [45][48].