Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-11 13:53Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The raw material cost support has weakened as the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply and raises costs, but the rapid release of Indonesian ferronickel production capacity has led to a significant rebound in output and a notable decline in ferronickel prices recently [2]. - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel output is expected to increase in August [2]. - At the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, with the optimistic expectation of the peak season from September to October and the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. Recently, steel prices have risen, and downstream buyers are mainly purchasing on - demand. The domestic inventory reduction has slowed down, and the spot premium has remained stable [2]. - Technically, with the increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract was 13,225 yuan/ton, a change of 240 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts was - 80 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 17,378 lots, an increase of 4,398 lots; the position of the main contract was 135,260 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity was 103,036 tons, an increase of 53 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi was 13,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output was 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide was 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output was 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 592,900 tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume was 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators was 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors was 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, turning from a 0.1% decline in June. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June [2]. - The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which will consolidate Russia's controlled territory. Zelensky stated that he firmly rejects territorial concessions, and an agreement without Ukraine's participation will be an "invalid plan" [2].