Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-11 14:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory pressure of domestic PE is not significant, with production enterprise inventory increasing by 19.09% to 515,400 tons and social inventory decreasing by 1.22% to 568,700 tons [2]. - The next round of intensive maintenance of domestic PE is expected to start in mid - August. This week, the restart of devices such as Yanchang Zhongmei and Wanhua Chemical is expected to lead to a month - on - month increase in production and capacity utilization [2]. - Affected by the leap June, the demand for domestic shed films is postponed, lengthening the off - season cycle of the downstream. Food and daily chemical packaging films have sporadic order accumulations, mainly for rigid demand [2]. - In terms of cost, due to the continuous impact of OPEC+ production increase, the remaining demand in the US fuel peak season, and the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian presidents, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. - The L2509 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton in the short term, and the L2601 contract still faces pressure in the future, with technical attention paid to the support near 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7,314 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7,364 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7,367 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7,314 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume is 175,650 lots, up 17,899 lots; the open interest is 252,486 lots, down 18,026 lots [2]. - Spread and position: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 50 yuan, up 4 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 165,386 lots, down 4,538 lots; the short position is 167,158 lots, down 14,907 lots; the net long position is - 1,772 lots, up 10,369 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE prices: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7,284.78 yuan/ton, up 3.91 yuan; in East China, it is 7,376.43 yuan/ton, up 2.62 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis is - 29.22 yuan, down 20.09 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Naphtha prices: The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.06 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 570.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.5 US dollars [2]. - Ethylene prices: The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - PE production and utilization rate: From August 1st to 7th, the total polyethylene production in China was 660,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.89%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 85.72%, a month - on - month increase of 3.75 percentage points. The current national petrochemical PE operating rate is 84.08%, up 2.99 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - PE downstream operating rates: The operating rate of polyethylene packaging films is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points; for pipes, it is 29%, up 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it is 13.07%, up 0.44 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 12.21%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.23%, down 0.28 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of polyethylene is 12.55%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Production and demand: From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% compared with the previous period, among which the operating rate of agricultural films increased by 0.4% [2]. - Inventory: As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 515,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09%; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% [2].