Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-11 14:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is favorable for the non - ferrous sector as there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters are rising, and primary lead maintains an advantage over recycled lead. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to lead price fluctuations. [3] - The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and smelters lack confidence, resulting in a tight overall supply. The sewage inspection in Anhui has affected local recycled lead production, increasing supply uncertainty. [3] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand has not shown a significant explosive growth but is in a slow recovery stage. Although there is a marginal improvement in the atmosphere of downstream low - price purchases, the consumption growth expectation in August is weak. However, there is a possibility of demand improvement as the peak season progresses. [3] - The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the current demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead this week. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,003.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. [3] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 99,522 lots, down 3,885 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 4,322 lots, down 999 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,482 tons, down 174 tons. [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,334 tons, down 949 tons; the LME lead inventory is 268,375 tons, down 1,025 tons. [3] 现货 Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 31.29 dollars/ton, up 2.23 dollars. [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,154 yuan, up 201 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. [3] - The average operating rate of primary lead is 77.49%, up 3.68%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.41 tons, up 0.06 tons. [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons. [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly import volume of lead ore is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons. [3] - The monthly import volume of refined lead is - 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,203.57 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, unchanged; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,814.22 points, down 14.84 points; the monthly automobile output is 280.86 tons, up 16.66 tons. [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons. [3] Industry News - Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15. There are different stances on the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The US is considering inviting Zelensky to participate, and the US vice - president believes that a Russia - Ukraine summit before the Trump - Putin meeting is not constructive. [3] - Netanyahu says Israel must defeat Hamas. The Israeli military's next - stage operations will target two Hamas - controlled areas, which has been criticized by European members of the UN Security Council and the Israeli finance minister. [3] - Trump plans to remove Billy Lang as the IRS director, and Treasury Secretary Bessent may serve as the acting director. E.J. Anthony is a top candidate for the director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. [3] - Fed Governor Bowman supports starting interest rate cuts in September and three cuts this year. JPMorgan has changed its Fed interest rate cut forecast from one to three times this year. [3]