股债跷跷板依然是主逻辑，国债震荡偏空

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly bearish" rating on the bond market, suggesting investors focus on the stock-bond seesaw [5]. Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic in the bond market, with long-term bond yields breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic is expected to continue to dominate the bond market [10]. - Despite a decline in economic sentiment in July, subsequent economic data shows that the economy still has resilience, and countercyclical adjustments such as infrastructure investment are expected to increase in the second half of the year [3]. - The fiscal policy is "very active," with sufficient funds for stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand. The main tone for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the likelihood of incremental policies exceeding market expectations is limited [4]. Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to a significant decline in long-term bond yields, breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic is expected to continue to dominate the bond market [10]. - The Politburo meeting in July provided some assurance for the steady growth of the economy in the second half of the year, with an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [10]. Chapter 2: Key News Overview - A number of major foreign investment projects have made new progress, and the National Development and Reform Commission plans to introduce a new batch of major foreign investment projects and a new version of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment" [15]. - In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [16]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization, aiming to build a mature financial system by 2027 [16]. - Multiple departments have deployed key tasks for the second half of the year, with the keywords being effectively releasing domestic demand potential, promoting the integration of "two innovations," and advancing capacity governance in key industries [16][17]. - China's CPI in July was flat year-on-year, with urban CPI remaining unchanged, rural CPI down 0.3%, food prices down 1.6%, non-food prices up 0.3%, consumer goods prices down 0.4%, and service prices up 0.5% [16]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Key Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating a decline in economic sentiment and an increase in downward pressure [18]. - China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding expectations [18]. - China's CPI in July was flat year-on-year, with different performance in urban and rural areas, as well as in food and non-food prices [18]. 3.2 Policy Front - As of the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. New RMB loans in the first half of the year were 12.92 trillion yuan, and new RMB deposits were 17.94 trillion yuan [20]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad money M2 was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the balance of narrow money M1 was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to May [20]. 3.3 Capital Front - Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed significantly and the policy rate has not been lowered, bond yields and DR007 have declined significantly, indicating that the capital market has loosened to a certain extent [22]. - With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, expectations of further monetary easing may increase, but the probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [22]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Front - In the past week, 16 provinces and municipalities including Shanghai, Hebei, and Beijing issued 161 local government bonds with a total scale of 641.64 billion yuan, including new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [26]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods trade-in funds in July and coordinate relevant aspects to ensure the orderly implementation of the policy throughout the year [26]. - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [26]. 3.5 Sentiment Front - The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term shock range and declined, indicating that the market's attention to stocks is greater than that to bonds, and market risk appetite has increased [28]. - Although the stock-bond ratio has slightly declined recently, it is still at a high level compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to whether it will continue to decline and whether funds will continue to flow from the bond market to the stock market [28]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The theme of economic work in the second half of the year is to combat involution and maintain stable economic recovery. With the start of infrastructure projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station, market expectations for further fiscal and infrastructure investment in the second half of the year have increased [31]. - Although the loose liquidity has supported the bond market, the stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic in the bond market recently. Paying attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market is the key to judging the medium-term trend of the bond market [31].