瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - On August 11, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1256.0, up 2.99%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. The trade - weighted average tariff rate of the US on all global products rose to 20.11% as of August 7. The mine - end inventory generally decreased, the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate declined for three consecutive months, and the total inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and upward - trending operation [2]. - On August 11, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1681.0, up 1.97%. The fifth round of price increase was implemented in the spot market. China's CPI was flat year - on - year in July, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The competition order in industries such as coal and photovoltaic was optimized, reducing price drag. The raw material inventory rebounded, the pig iron output was 242.23 tons this period, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The pig iron output was at a high level, and the coal mine inventory was no longer under pressure, with inventory transferring downstream. The total coking coal inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 16 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and upward - trending operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1256.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1681.00 yuan/ton, up 27.50 yuan. The JM futures contract positions were 942082.00 lots, up 26238.00 lots; the J futures contract positions were 53077.00 lots, up 1123.00 lots. The net positions of the top 20 JM contracts were - 97157.00 lots, down 2440.00 lots; the net positions of the top 20 J contracts were - 7122.00 lots, up 338.00 lots. The spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 149.50 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 78.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 100.00, up 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 800.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 973.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The forward spot price of Russian prime coking coal (CFR) was 145.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1550.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 64.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was - 16.00 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%. The raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.30 tons, down 5.30 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2]. National Industry Situation - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons. The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 10.91 days, down 0.26 days. The import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons. The coking coal output was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.03%, up 0.34%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan/ton. The coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. Industry News - In July, China's CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI fell 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and fell 3.6% year - on - year, the same as last month. As of the 7th, the US trade - weighted average tariff rate on all global products rose to 20.11%, significantly higher than 2.44% at the beginning of the year. US President Trump announced a meeting with Russian President Putin in Alaska on the 15th to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy, and eligible families are no longer restricted in the number of housing purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road. In the past year, at least a dozen provinces and cities have issued incentive policy documents, or planned to set up or have set up state - owned asset M&A funds, which have transformed from "fund providers" to "industry integrators" [2].