Guohai Securities·2025-08-11 14:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal industry with a long resource duration and optimized asset structure, which together catalyze its growth potential [9][20] - The company has a strong financial position with a high dividend payout capability, aiming to align with high-dividend companies in the sector [9][30] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a 58.41% stake as of April 2025. It operates in coal mining, coal chemical, power generation, and coal mining equipment manufacturing [9][11] - In 2024, the company's coal, coal chemical, and coal mining equipment businesses generated revenues of 1,600.68 billion, 204.27 billion, and 109.03 billion CNY, respectively, contributing 84.51%, 10.79%, and 5.76% to total revenue [14] Coal Business - The company possesses abundant coal resources, with a total resource volume of 265.20 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 138.21 billion tons, ranking third and second among coal enterprises, respectively [9][34] - The company has a high long-term contract ratio, which helps stabilize profits despite market price fluctuations. In 2024, the gross profit from coal operations was 396.28 billion CNY, with a net profit of 152 CNY per ton [9][40] Coal Chemical Business - The company has diversified its coal chemical products, including polyethylene, methanol, urea, and ammonium nitrate, with a stable self-sufficiency rate and declining raw material coal prices supporting its gross margin [9][10] - The gross profit from coal chemical operations in 2024 was 31.12 billion CNY, maintaining a gross margin above 15% [9][10] Coal Mining Equipment Business - The coal mining equipment business achieved a production value of 103.5 billion CNY in 2024, with a stable gross margin of around 17% to 18% over the past five years [9][10] Power Business - The company is focusing on coal-electricity integration and accelerating the development of renewable energy projects, with significant capital investments planned for 2025 [9][10] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 1,688.80 billion, 1,765.91 billion, and 1,846.27 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 162.11 billion, 175.57 billion, and 189.54 billion CNY, respectively [9][10] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 10.09, 9.32, and 8.63 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [9][10]