基本面没有变动，延续调整行情

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weekly Summary: PX prices declined this week due to the dissipation of macro - sentiment. Its fundamentals had little change, and the expected increase in supply from newly - commissioned reforming units affected market sentiment, but had no significant impact on the supply - demand balance. PX inventory was at a year - on - year low, so the price continued to fluctuate with support at the bottom. PTA prices fell and remained low, with no unexpected news. The spot supply was sufficient, and the impact of planned PTA plant overhauls was already factored in, while unplanned production cuts had limited market - boosting effects. The continuous shipment by major PTA suppliers weakened the spot basis, and downstream demand remained sluggish [6]. - Market Outlook: Concerns about Russia's oil supply disruptions are expected to ease, and crude oil prices will continue to be under pressure. An East China 1 million - ton PX plant may restart, but Asian supply is relatively low, and new PTA plants' procurement provides a bottom for PX demand. In the PTA market, some plants will overhaul and some will restart, and supply will be sufficient next week. For polyester, the first - round overhaul of polyester filament has been implemented, and the theoretical production losses of most polyester products have narrowed, with polyester filament POY slightly profitable, so polyester factories are not expected to overhaul for now. In the weaving sector, the shipment of autumn and winter fabrics has improved locally, and a small number of foreign trade orders have been placed, but most factories lack orders. Overall, PX will fluctuate in the range of 6,650 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and PTA will fluctuate in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - Weekly Summary: PX prices dropped due to macro - sentiment fading, with stable fundamentals and expected supply increase. PTA prices declined and remained low, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [6]. - Market Outlook: Crude oil prices will be under pressure. PX will maintain a range - bound trend with a potential plant restart and stable demand. PTA supply will be sufficient next week. Polyester factories may not overhaul, and weaving orders are still scarce. PX will fluctuate between 6,650 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and PTA between 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The strategy is to observe [9]. 3.2 Price Situation - PX: The closing price of the PX main contract on August 8 was 6,726 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.26%. The settlement price on August 8 was 6,748 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.43%. The average PX domestic spot price from August 4 - 8 was 6,741.4 yuan/ton, down 154.4 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.24% [14][15]. - PTA: The closing price of the PTA main contract on August 8 was 4,684 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.28%. The settlement price on August 8 was 4,688 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.53%. The average PTA arrival price in the Chinese market from August 4 - 8 was 594.4 US dollars/ton, down 20.4 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of - 3.32%. The average PTA spot price in the East China market was 4,681.8 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.9% [19][22]. 3.3 Device Operation Situation - PX Devices: Many domestic PX plants are operating at different loads, and some plants in Asia have restarted or are under maintenance. The domestic PX operating rate has recovered, with the rate from August 4 - 8 at 82.01%, up from 80.66% from July 28 - August 1 [27][29][32]. - PTA Devices: Some PTA plants have carried out overhauls, and the weekly PTA operating rate has decreased by 3.75%. Although some plants are restarting, supply remains sufficient [35][36]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Cost: - Crude Oil: WTI crude oil's August 8 futures settlement price was 63.88 US dollars/barrel, down 3.45 US dollars/barrel from August 1. Brent crude oil's August 8 futures settlement price was 66.59 US dollars/barrel, down 3.08 US dollars/barrel from August 1. OPEC + production increase, trade disputes, and other factors have put pressure on oil prices [43]. - Naphtha: The weekly average CFR Japan naphtha price was 578.32 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 37.49 US dollars/ton. The supply - demand structure was stable, and the price decline mainly followed crude oil [50]. - PX Spot: The weekly average CFR China main port PX price was 840.25 US dollars/ton, a change of - 1.83% from the previous period; the weekly average FOB Korea price was 813.60 US dollars/ton, a change of - 2.14% from the previous period. The spot market buying interest was weak during the polyester off - season [53]. - Supply: - PX Processing Margin: The PXN weekly average was 261.94 yuan/ton, with a 1.66% change from the previous period, and the PX - MX margin continued to rise [56]. - PTA Processing Fee: The average PTA spot processing fee from August 4 - 8 was 154.48 yuan/ton, down from the previous week's 202.74 yuan/ton, falling below the industry average break - even point [59]. - Inventory: As of August 8, PTA social inventory was 4.51 million tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous week, with a - 1.06% change in the month - on - month growth rate. PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.12 days, while polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.30 days [63][65]. - Demand: - Polyester Products: The average prices of some polyester products have changed slightly, with some rising and some falling. The first - round reduction of polyester filament in August has been implemented. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from August 4 - 8 was estimated at 60%. Polyester factories' average weekly load was 86.68%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms' average weekly load was 57.83%. Long - filament production and sales are expected to pick up next week [70][76]. - Weaving: Most weaving factories lack orders, and only a few can produce until mid - September. The operating rates of various regions' weaving machines have remained stable [84].