大类资产运行周报:新一轮关税生效,权益资产价格上涨-20250811
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-11 14:30
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - From August 4th to August 8th, the new round of "reciprocal tariffs" in the US officially took effect, and the meeting time and location between the Russian and US leaders were confirmed. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities declined. In China, stocks and bonds closed higher, and commodities were volatile and weak. Overall, stocks > bonds > commodities [3][6][20]. - The meeting between the Russian and US leaders will have a certain impact on short - term large - scale asset prices. Attention should be paid to the specific progress of this meeting [3][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities Fall - Global Stock Market: From August 4th to August 8th, market risk appetite recovered, and global major stock markets generally closed higher. European stocks led the gains, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index dropped significantly. For example, MSCI in the Asia - Pacific region rose 2.25% in a week, and the German DAX rose 3.15% [8][11][14]. - Global Bond Market: Trump planned to nominate Stephen Milan as a Fed governor. If the nomination succeeds, the divergence on monetary policy within the Fed may increase. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds rose, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 4BP to 4.27%. The bond market rose, and globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [12]. - Global Foreign Exchange Market: The expectation of a September US dollar interest rate cut increased, and the US dollar index dropped 0.43% in a week. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [13]. - Global Commodity Market: The Russia - US talks reduced geopolitical risk premiums, and international oil prices closed lower. Most major agricultural product prices fell, while non - ferrous metals and precious metals prices rose [18]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities are Volatile and Weak - Domestic Stock Market: Market sentiment was positive, and major A - share broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. The growth style was more prominent. In terms of sectors, non - ferrous metals and machinery led the gains, while the pharmaceutical sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11% in a week [21]. - Domestic Bond Market: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 53.65 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market rose. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [25]. - Domestic Commodity Market: The domestic commodity market declined slightly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, and the energy sector performed poorly [27]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The meeting between the Russian and US leaders will affect short - term large - scale asset prices. Attention should be paid to the specific progress of this meeting [3][28].