铜铝周报：库存稳步增长，铜铝振荡整理-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Logic: Macroeconomic factors include China's export growth in July exceeding expectations, the impact of US tariff policies yet to be seen, and market expectations of a Fed rate cut within the year. Fundamentally, high - end copper supply is scarce, imported low - price supplies are limited, and demand is suppressed by high prices. As of August 7, copper inventory rose to 132,000 tons. The implementation of US copper tariffs and high inventory are pressuring prices [4]. - Strategy: Wait for the price to stabilize. The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE Copper 2509 contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Logic: Macroeconomic factors are similar to copper. Fundamentally, production is slightly increasing, costs are stable, and profits are high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season, and social inventory has exceeded 550,000 tons. Aluminum prices may remain high and volatile, and attention should be paid to the "Golden September and Silver October" demand [6]. - Strategy: The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - Logic: Macroeconomic factors are the same as above. Fundamentally, the weekly operating rate rose to 82.57% as of August 7, and the market is in an oversupply situation with high downstream inventory. Alumina may oscillate within a range [8]. - Strategy: The upper reference pressure level for the Alumina 2509 contract is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Weekly Price Changes: Provided the 8.4 - 8.8 weekly cumulative price change statistics for various metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc [16]. - Weekly News: Included events like Codelco's suspension of ore processing due to a tunnel collapse, changes in Chile's copper exports, US copper tariffs, Century Aluminum's plan to restart production, and changes in US aluminum imports [17]. 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestic Data: In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. Exports in July exceeded expectations, but there is a possibility of a decline in the future [19][21]. - Macroeconomic Forecast: Provided domestic and foreign economic data forecasts from August 11 - 15, including China's money supply, real estate investment, and US CPI, PPI, etc. [24]. 03. Copper Market Analysis - Spot Market: The processing fee TC rebounded from a low level [28]. - Futures Market: The net long position in COMEX copper dropped significantly [31]. - Overseas Market: The price difference between US copper and LME copper returned to normal [35]. - Inventory: As of August 7, the SMM national mainstream area copper inventory was 132,000 tons, with a significant weekly increase. The开工 rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises decreased to 68.86% from August 1 - 7, and is expected to increase to 70.79% from August 8 - 14 [41]. 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - Domestic Market: The spot discount widened [45]. - Foreign Market: The US dollar index weakened [47]. - Inventory: Various inventory data for electrolytic aluminum, including social inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc., were provided [49]. - Downstream Operations: As of July 31, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries rose to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performance, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly to 59% this week [51]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: As of August 7, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton. Cost pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory growth slowed down [54]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit data of electrolytic aluminum were presented [58]. 05. Alumina Market Analysis - Spot Market: The spot price remained stable [62]. - Futures Market: The inventory of futures was at a low level [63]. - Supply and Demand: Supply changes were limited, with some regional imbalances. Demand increased slightly due to the increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity [68]. - Cost and Profit: As of August 8, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,977.79 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 292.69 yuan/ton [69].