Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of slight inventory accumulation during the off - season, but steel prices still have upward drivers. The overall inventory accumulation pressure of steel is not large. Considering the expected production cuts in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding provinces before the September military parade and the potential for terminal demand to form restocking support during the off - peak to peak season transition, steel prices are expected to have limited short - term decline space and medium - term upward drivers [3]. - The iron ore market has limited short - term supply pressure, and the inventory has no obvious accumulation pressure. It follows the changes in macro - policy expectations and market sentiment. With the transition from the off - season to the peak season, terminal demand remains resilient, and there are still opportunities for medium - term low - buying [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is firm. Coking coal mines in some areas have production cuts, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profitability has improved, and the sixth round of price increases has been initiated. With high iron - water production supporting raw materials, there is still upward space [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The coking coal and coke market is firm, and steel prices are oscillating. Last week, there were many disturbances in coking coal supply news. Supported by high iron - water production, the coking coal and coke market was strong, forming cost support. The industrial structure continued to have slight inventory accumulation during the off - season, exports remained resilient, and the market sentiment was optimistic, with prices showing slight oscillating adjustments [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: National weekly production of rebar was 221.18 million tons (up 4.79% week - on - week and 31.23% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coils was 314.89 million tons (down 2.45% week - on - week and up 3.73% year - on - year). Both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar production increased [13][16][18]. - Operating Rate: The national blast - furnace operating rate was 83.75% (up 0.35% week - on - week and 3.04% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate was 74.9% (up 0.93% week - on - week and 36.98% year - on - year) [24][28]. - Profit: Rebar profit was + 177 yuan/ton (up 22.03% week - on - week and 289 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 188 yuan/ton (down 10.05% week - on - week and up 303 yuan/ton year - on - year) [29][32]. - Demand: Rebar apparent consumption was 210.79 million tons (up 3.63% week - on - week and 7.57% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 306.21 million tons (down 4.31% week - on - week and up 2.58% year - on - year) [33][37]. - Inventory: Rebar total inventory was 556.68 million tons (up 1.90% week - on - week and down 22.70% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 356.63 million tons (up 2.49% week - on - week and down 18.46% year - on - year) [38][41][46]. - Downstream: In the real - estate market, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week and decreased by 15.43% year - on - year. The transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.91% week - on - week and 13.12% year - on - year. In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, with month - on - month growth of 5.5% and 8.1% and year - on - year growth of 11.4% and 13.8% [47][50][53]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 24.639 million tons (down 7.99% week - on - week and 2.84% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 25.078 million tons (up 11.93% week - on - week and down 3.94% year - on - year) [56][61]. - Demand: Daily iron - water production was 2.4032 million tons (down 0.39 million tons week - on - week and up 0.862 million tons year - on - year), and the ore - handling volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 3.2185 million tons (up 6.32% week - on - week and 1.58% year - on - year) [62][66]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 iron - ore ports was 137.1227 million tons (up 0.40% week - on - week and down 8.80% year - on - year), and the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1334 million tons (up 0.01% week - on - week and down 0.36% year - on - year) [67][72]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.89% (down 2.80% week - on - week and 6.58% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal - washing plants was 36.22% (up 3.40% week - on - week and down 17.36% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 142,300 tons (up 23.56% week - on - week and 1.05% year - on - year) [74][78]. - Coking Enterprises: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 16 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 74.03% (up 0.46% week - on - week and 0.42% year - on - year) [82][86]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 8.3304 million tons (down 1.31% week - on - week and up 18.21% year - on - year), that of steel mills was 8.0848 million tons (up 0.61% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 2.7734 million tons (down 1.69% week - on - week and 11.24% year - on - year) [87][92]. - Coke Inventory: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 446,300 tons (down 4.06% week - on - week and up 1.39% year - on - year), that of steel mills was 6.1928 million tons (down 1.18% week - on - week and up 15.49% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 2.1815 million tons (up 1.42% week - on - week and 15.29% year - on - year) [93][98]. - Spot Price: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,500 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week and down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1,230 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 520 yuan/ton year - on - year) [99][104]. 5. Spread Analysis - The rebar basis is shrinking, and the spread between the rebar 10 - 1 contracts is narrowing. The iron ore 9 - 1 spread is narrowing, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar first widened and then narrowed [106][112].
周报：淡季小幅累库，钢价仍有上行驱动-20250811
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-11 14:29