烧碱周报：库存压力明显，烧碱承压调整-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: China's export growth in July 2025 continued to exceed expectations, and attention should be paid to policy changes; the implementation of US tariff policies and the impact on the economy remain to be seen; with the personnel changes in the Federal Reserve, market expectations for an interest rate cut within the year are rising [4]. - Supply - Demand: In the East China region, there are both device overhauls and restarts, but without substantial positive support for non - aluminum demand, affected by the price decline in the main regions, the liquid caustic soda price is expected to be weakly stable this week. In Shandong Province, the liquid caustic soda market remains weak, the shipment of high - concentration caustic soda slows down, and the price will show a weakly stable trend [4]. - Overall Logic: Caustic soda has strong cost support at the bottom. From the supply - demand perspective, the inventory pressure is obvious, and the near - month contracts will face certain warrant pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [4]. - Strategy Suggestion: For the caustic soda 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2650 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Spot Market: Shandong's liquid caustic soda market is running weakly. The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.44%; the price of 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 1280 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.03%. The price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest region decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.08%. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 60%. The prices of sea salt in Shandong and alumina in Shandong remained unchanged [9][18]. - Futures Market: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, and PVC futures contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [15]. 02 Market Analysis - Supply Side: In the week of 20250801 - 0807, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. It is expected that the caustic soda capacity utilization rate will be around 83.1%, and the weekly output will be around 804,500 tons. There are still planned maintenance devices in the northwest and north China regions, and the load is expected to decline [22]. - Downstream - Alumina: The supply of alumina changed little in the week. The supply - demand mismatch in different regions still exists. As of August 7, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.4 million tons [25]. - Inventory: As of 20250807, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 461,700 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. The storage capacity ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 26.56%, a month - on - month increase of 2.87% [31]. - Liquid Chlorine: As of August 7, 2025, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 35.9%. As of August 8, 2025, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. It is expected to reach 80.13% this week [34]. - Chlor - Alkali Cost and Profit: In the week of 20250801 - 20250807, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 278 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.31%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased slightly, the caustic soda price declined, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in an overall increase in chlor - alkali profits [35].