尿素周报：出口数量不及预期，盘面冲高回落-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, the urea futures market first rose and then fell. Affected by the high price of the Indian tender and the opening of exports to India, the market soared and then declined. The downstream's ability to bear high prices is insufficient. Although there is demand resilience, there is no willingness to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being. It is mainly based on replenishing stocks at low prices. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer factories, the downside space for urea is limited, and it will mainly undergo weak consolidation in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, affected by the rising futures price, the Indian tender price, and export news, the trading atmosphere in the urea spot market was hot, and the spot price increased. In the second half of the week, the export situation was less than expected, and the downstream support was insufficient, so the price stabilized and declined. Since the weekend, the downstream trading has been mediocre, and the price has mainly been adjusted downward [3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume of the main contract last week was 15.6933 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 163,000 tons; the open interest was 5.7222 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 370,600 tons. After the Indian tender price increased and China opened the export of urea to India, the futures price soared to a high of 1,791 yuan/ton, but then the export volume was less than expected, and the futures price corrected. Last week, the decline of urea futures was weaker than that of the spot, and the basis weakened [5] Urea Supply - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly output of urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.87%; the average daily output was 189,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 tons. It is expected that no enterprise's equipment will be shut down next week, and one shut-down enterprise will resume production. As of August 11, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,700 tons, and the operating rate was 81.62% [12] Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat compared to the previous week. As of August 8, the quotation of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, with an increasing operating load. Sales are mainly based on pre-sales orders, and the finished product inventory in the factories is continuously increasing. Due to the general bearish sentiment in the market and the lack of preparations for large-scale inventory replenishment by compound fertilizer factories, the purchase of raw material urea is mainly based on buying at low prices and making appropriate replenishments. At present, the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. From August 1 to August 7, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and 2.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From August 1 to August 7, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 61.1%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period and 11.85 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, the number of shut-down and maintenance equipment increased during the week, and the downstream demand was weak. It is expected that the operating load will continue to decline in the short term [17] Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 3.24%, and 563,300 tons higher than the same period last year. During the week, the urea output decreased, and the downstream's low-price purchasing increased, so the inventory in the urea factories decreased. It is expected that the urea inventory will continue to decline next week. The inventory of the port samples was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As the export goods gradually left the port, the port inventory decreased [19] International Market - China will export a limited quantity of urea to India, with an expected export volume of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. The price of the IPL Indian tender is higher than the market expectation, and India's demand for urea is still increasing. It is expected that a new tender will be launched in September. Except for India and Brazil, the demand in other global markets has declined to varying degrees. It is expected that the international urea price will have a correction trend before the new demand from these two countries emerges. As of August 8, the FOB price of small-grain urea in China was reported at $460/ton, a week-on-week increase of $50/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was reported at $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $512.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $457.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton. As of August 8, the FOB price of large-grain urea in China was reported at $467.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $30/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in Egypt was $502.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $12.5/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Arabian Gulf was $456.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Baltic Sea was $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $15/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $465/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7.5/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was reported at $446.5/ton, a week-on-week decrease of $12.5/ton [21]