First Shanghai Securities·2025-08-11 14:29Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Mobile with a target price of HKD 116, representing a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HKD 87 [2][6]. Core Insights - China Mobile's operating performance shows steady growth, with service revenue under pressure but profits exceeding expectations. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 543.8 billion, with service revenue at CNY 467.0 billion (YoY +0.7%). The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 84.2 billion (YoY +5.0%) [3][6]. - The company is focusing on value-driven operations to promote structural revenue growth. Personal market revenue was CNY 244.7 billion (YoY -4.1%), while household broadband customers reached 284 million, with a net increase of 6.23 million [6]. - The report highlights the continuous innovation and expansion into emerging businesses, with new market revenue reaching CNY 29.1 billion (YoY +9.3%) and international business revenue at CNY 14.0 billion (YoY +18.4%) [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile's total connections reached 3.815 billion (YoY +8.9%), with digital transformation revenue at CNY 156.9 billion (YoY +6.6%), accounting for 33.6% of main business revenue [3][6]. - The EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was CNY 186.0 billion (YoY +2.0%), with an EBITDA margin of 39.8% (YoY +0.5pct) [3][6]. Future Projections - The report forecasts operating revenue to grow from CNY 1,009.3 billion in 2023 to CNY 1,088.8 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.7% [5][22]. - Net profit is projected to increase from CNY 131.8 billion in 2023 to CNY 161.8 billion by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [5][22]. Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at HKD 2.75 per share (YoY +5.8%), with an increasing cash dividend payout ratio expected for the full year [3][6].